中国区-云半导体全球需求增强Greater China Semiconductors-Cloud Semis Stronger Demand Globally

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Greater China Semiconductors industry, particularly the cloud semiconductor (CSP) sector in the Asia Pacific region [1][7]. Key Points 1. Increased Capital Expenditure (Capex) for Top CSPs: - The top four US CSPs (Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft) are projected to have a capex of US$359 billion in 2025 and US$454 billion in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth of 57% and 26% respectively [4][10]. - This is an upward revision from previous forecasts of 38% and 17% growth [4]. 2. Strong Demand from Non-US Markets: - There is an underestimation of demand from non-US countries, particularly for PCIe/HGX servers, with expectations of strong demand for B200 and B300 products in late 3Q [5][10]. - The AP team noted that tier 2 CSPs are catching up on capex, with the AI server pipeline expected to be larger than that of the top CSPs [10]. 3. Supply Chain Improvements: - Supply chain manufacturing issues are improving, with better assembly yields for GB200 racks and no notable issues expected for GB300 sampling starting in 3Q [5][10]. - A specific datacenter project is expected to utilize 28,000 GB200 NVL72 racks for a 4.5GW datacenter [5]. 4. Cloud Capex Growth: - The cumulative capex for the top 11 cloud providers is expected to reach US$445 billion in 2025, an increase from prior estimates, indicating a significant rise in capital intensity [17]. - The overall capital intensity is projected to exceed 18%, with forecasts suggesting it could surpass 20% of revenue in 2026 [17]. 5. Positive Outlook for Aspeed Technology: - The company maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Aspeed Technology, citing its current valuation of 40x 2026e P/E, which is below the historical average of 47x since 2020 [6][11]. Additional Insights - The market appears overly concerned about potential inventory corrections, which may not materialize as expected [11]. - The conference highlighted the importance of ongoing improvements in manufacturing yields and the potential for increased demand from non-US markets, which could provide significant growth opportunities for companies in the semiconductor sector [5][10]. Conclusion - The Greater China Semiconductors industry, particularly in the cloud segment, is poised for substantial growth driven by increased capex from major CSPs, improving supply chain conditions, and strong demand from non-US markets. The positive outlook for specific companies like Aspeed Technology further underscores the potential for investment opportunities in this sector [1][7].