2025-08-05 08:17Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Global Technology, specifically focusing on AI Supply Chain and semiconductor industry - Key Players: TSMC, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, MediaTek, Alchip, Aspeed, Advantest, KYEC, and others Core Insights and Arguments 1. Cloud Capex Growth: Morgan Stanley expects 2026 cloud capex to increase by 31% year-over-year (Y/Y) to US$582 billion, significantly higher than the consensus estimate of 16% Y/Y growth [2][10][67] 2. AI Server Capex: The implied AI server capex is projected to grow approximately 70% Y/Y in 2026, driven by an increase in AI server capex mix [2][11] 3. TSMC CoWoS Capacity: TSMC's 2026 CoWoS capacity is estimated to remain unchanged at 93k wafers per month, which is expected to support the anticipated AI capex growth [1][4][27] 4. Hyperscalers' Capex: The top 11 global hyperscalers are tracking a cash capex of US$445 billion for 2025, reflecting a 56% Y/Y growth, with major contributions from Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet [9][68] 5. AI Chip Demand: Strong demand for AI semiconductors is expected to persist, with Morgan Stanley maintaining an "Overweight" rating on key semiconductor companies [2][11] Additional Important Insights 1. China's AI Chip Supply: There are ongoing developments in China's AI chip supply, with Nvidia placing new wafer orders at TSMC for H20 chips, adding 200k units to the previous production of 1 million units [8] 2. Nvidia's CoWoS Consumption: Nvidia's CoWoS consumption assumption has been raised from 580k to 595k units for 2026, indicating strong demand for their chips [22] 3. Market Dynamics: The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that Huawei is developing its own AI chips to compete with Nvidia, showcasing the CM384 server rack prototype [8][41] 4. Depreciation Trends: Depreciation as a percentage of total expenses for data center customers is expected to rise, reflecting increased investments in data centers [60] 5. AI Inference Demand: Monthly tokens processed by major cloud service providers indicate a growing demand for AI inference, with Google processing over 980 trillion tokens in July 2025, doubling from May [15] Conclusion The conference call emphasizes a robust outlook for the AI semiconductor industry, driven by significant increases in cloud capex and AI server investments. TSMC's capacity plans and the competitive dynamics in the AI chip market, particularly with developments in China, are critical factors to monitor.