“反内卷”主题专家会议：水泥

Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement industry achieved profitability in the first half of 2025, generating a profit of 16 billion due to staggered production and industry self-discipline, avoiding overall losses in the sector [1][2] - The long-term strategy focuses on capacity governance, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) confirming a total capacity of 1.6 billion tons, having eliminated 45 million tons of clinker capacity, expected to raise capacity utilization to 65%-70% [1][3] Key Points and Arguments - Profitability Improvement: The cement industry was in a loss of 1.2 billion in the first half of 2024, but turned around to a profit of 16 billion in the same period of 2025, indicating significant short-term effects from staggered production and self-discipline [2] - Capacity Governance: The MIIT's focus on capacity governance aims to reduce actual capacity and eliminate inefficient production. The confirmed capacity is 1.6 billion tons, down from 1.8 billion tons previously [3] - Progress in Capacity Elimination: As of the end of July, 45 million tons of clinker capacity have been eliminated, with expectations of a 15% increase in capacity utilization from 50% to 65% [4][5] - Regional Disparities: Some regions, particularly in the northwest, northeast, and north China, will still rely on staggered production and self-discipline due to low utilization rates [6] - Future Market Stability: By 2027, after the completion of capacity governance, market prices are expected to stabilize, although 2026 may see some market chaos [8][9] - Carbon Emission Regulations: The industry will enter a deep phase of carbon trading by 2027, with strict production line operation days set at 330 for A-grade and 270 for C/D-grade lines, significantly impacting the industry [12] Additional Important Insights - Online Monitoring Systems: The implementation of online monitoring systems aims to control clinker production errors to within 5%, with a goal of integrating carbon emission monitoring by 2027 [7][11] - Long-term Price and Profitability Outlook: The completion of capacity governance is expected to improve price and profitability, with a projected increase in gross profit per ton to a reasonable level rather than hovering around cost lines [10][19] - Rural Infrastructure Demand: Demand from rural road and farmland construction is expected to be between 10 million to 20 million tons, benefiting small and medium enterprises more than large corporations [26] - Current Price Trends: Cement prices are currently weak due to insufficient market demand, with expectations of a seasonal rebound in mid-August [27] Conclusion The cement industry is undergoing significant changes aimed at improving profitability and stabilizing the market through capacity governance and self-discipline measures. The introduction of carbon emission regulations and online monitoring systems will further shape the industry's future dynamics.