钨行业专题报告解读

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing a reduction in mining quotas, with the first batch of quotas for 2024 down by 6.5% year-on-year, leading to an increase in black tungsten concentrate prices, which approached 200,000 yuan/ton by the end of July, reflecting a rise of over 30% since the beginning of the year [1][2] - China's tungsten consumption is projected to be around 70,000 tons in 2024, with mining supply at 60,000 tons and the remainder sourced from recycling [1][2] - Hard alloys account for nearly 60% of tungsten consumption, while tungsten materials (including photovoltaic tungsten wire) make up 23% [1][2] Price Trends - Since 2020, tungsten prices have shown a gradual upward trend, with significant increases following the announcement of the first batch of quotas each year [4] - The highest operating rate in five years was recorded in June, indicating resilient demand [4] Global and Domestic Supply - Global tungsten resources are estimated at 4.6 million tons, with China holding 52% of the reserves and accounting for 83% of the production, primarily concentrated in Jiangxi and Hunan provinces [5] - China has implemented total control over tungsten mining since 2002, with the first batch of quotas for 2025 also down by 6.5% year-on-year [6] Future Supply Expectations - Domestic projects like Dahuatang and Zhuxi are expected to add approximately 13,000 tons of tungsten supply by 2030, while overseas projects in Kazakhstan and Australia are anticipated to contribute an additional 10,000 tons [7] Recycling and Cost Advantages - The proportion of recycled tungsten in China is currently low but offers cost advantages, with a shorter production cycle and lower manufacturing costs compared to primary tungsten [8] Import and Export Dynamics - Despite producing 80% to 90% of global tungsten concentrate, China still imports about 10,000 tons annually, with downstream products being exported after powder metallurgy [9] Demand Concentration and Trends - Tungsten demand is primarily concentrated in four sectors: special steel, chemicals, tungsten materials, and hard alloys, with significant growth in hard alloys and tungsten materials expected [10][11] - The hard alloy sector has seen production increase from 23,000 tons in 2015 to 60,000 tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11% [13] Impact of Major Projects - The Yashan project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly increase tungsten demand over the next decade due to extensive use of tungsten tools and equipment [12] Technological Advancements - The implementation of nuclear fusion technology, expected around 2040, could dramatically increase global tungsten demand, with a single 1GW fusion reactor requiring 29,000 tons of tungsten over its 40-year lifespan [17] Market Dynamics - The domestic supply-demand balance indicates a growing gap, with overall consumption projected to rise from 60,000 tons in 2024 to over 70,000 tons by 2027 [18] Key Companies in the A-Share Market - Five key companies in the A-share market are involved in tungsten: Xiamen Property, Zhonggao New, Zhangyuan Property, Xiaolu Property, and Anyuan Meiyu, with Zhonggao New and Zhangyuan Property focusing solely on tungsten business [19][20]