心动公司20250805

Summary of Xindong Company Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Xindong Company - Industry: Gaming and Information Services Key Points and Arguments 1. Revenue Performance: Xindong Company's gaming business revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in overseas markets for "Ragnarok" and significant contributions from "Torchlight" and "Xindong Town" [2][4] 2. Profit Improvement: The company saw a notable improvement in profit margins, with the gaming business gross margin increasing due to a higher proportion of overseas business, which has a better margin [2][4] 3. Future Growth Potential: Xindong Company has high growth certainty, with upcoming launches of "Iser" in multiple regions and the overseas version of "Xindong Town" expected by the end of 2025, which could significantly contribute to revenue [2][5] 4. TapTap Platform: The TapTap platform benefits from algorithmic recommendations and AI capabilities, enhancing ad targeting and improving ROI for advertisers, suggesting it should be valued as a vertical gaming community or tech platform [2][6] 5. Revenue Forecast Adjustments: The company raised its gaming business revenue forecast for 2025 by 32.4%, with similar adjustments for 2026 and 2027 nearing 35%, while also increasing overall gross margin by 4 percentage points [2][7] 6. Profit Structure Changes: The profit structure is shifting, with TapTap's profit growth potentially surpassing that of the gaming business, indicating a need for a distributed valuation approach [2][12][13] 7. Market Valuation: Using a distributed valuation method, the target market value is approximately 37 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 81 HKD, indicating further upside potential from current stock prices [3][14] 8. Product Line Clarity: The product line for the next two years is clear, with "Iser" contributing in Q4 2025 and "Xindong Town" expected to generate significant revenue in 2026 [10][26] 9. Success Rate of Products: The high success rate of Xindong's products is attributed to systematic resource investment and management optimization, leading to successful launches like "Xindong Town" and "Iser" [11] 10. TapTap's Unique Business Model: TapTap operates as both a game community and distribution channel, with a zero-revenue-sharing model that attracts many mid-tier companies, thus reducing their costs [19] 11. Advertising Revenue Growth: TapTap's advertising revenue is closely linked to its monthly active users (MAU), with a 33% increase in ad revenue despite a decline in MAU in 2023 [20] 12. Profitability of TapTap: In 2024, TapTap generated 1.5 billion RMB in revenue with a net profit exceeding 400 million RMB, and the net profit margin is expected to rise to around 40% in 2025 [25] 13. Overall Performance Outlook: The overall performance outlook for Xindong Company remains optimistic, with adjusted earnings forecasts reflecting strong growth potential driven by successful game launches and the profitability of the TapTap platform [27] Other Important Insights - Market Discrepancies: There are significant discrepancies in market valuation, with traditional views comparing Xindong to larger gaming companies like Tencent and NetEase, which may not accurately reflect its current growth trajectory [8][9] - Focus on Key Projects: Key projects to watch include "Ragnarok" and "Torchlight," with "Ragnarok" performing particularly well in Southeast Asia [15] - User Engagement Strategies: "Xindong Town" has maintained user engagement through frequent events, contributing to its strong performance in 2025 [16][17] - Valuation Perspectives: Different viewpoints exist regarding the valuation of "Xindong Town," with suggestions to evaluate it separately as a platform due to its complex profit structure [18]