Suncor(SU) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record upstream production of 831,000 barrels per day for the first half of 2025, surpassing the previous record by 28,000 barrels per day [6] - Refining throughput reached 462,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2025, also a record, exceeding the previous best by 20,000 barrels per day [7] - Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) for Q2 was $2,700,000,000, translating to $2.2 per share, while adjusted operating earnings were $873,000,000 or $0.71 per share [30] - The total operating costs for the first half of 2025 were $6,460,000,000, down $135,000,000 compared to 2024, despite higher production and throughput [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Upstream production in Q2 was 808,000 barrels per day, marking the highest second quarter in company history [29] - Oil sands production averaged 748,000 barrels per day in Q2, impacted by turnaround activities [29] - Refining utilization remained robust at 95%, with crude throughput of 442,000 barrels per day [30] - Product sales reached 603,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2025, a record high, with a 72,000 barrels per day increase compared to 2023 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - WTI crude prices averaged $63.7 per barrel in Q2, a decrease of nearly $8 from Q1 [25] - The light-heavy differential tightened to $2.45 per barrel, while synthetic crude improved to a $1 per barrel premium [26] - Diesel cracks remained strong, contributing positively to the refining margins [96] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence and reducing turnaround costs, raising the annual turnaround capital reduction target from $250,000,000 to $350,000,000 [17] - A new operational excellence system has been implemented to standardize performance across sites, aiming for best-in-class operations [22][23] - The company plans to maintain a disciplined approach to capital expenditures, with a revised guidance range of $5,700,000,000 to $5,900,000, reflecting a structural reduction [21][72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates continued commodity market volatility but remains optimistic about refining margins due to positive supply-demand balances [28] - The company is committed to returning excess funds to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, having returned $13,600,000,000 since the beginning of 2023 [25] - Future growth projects and long-term plans will be discussed at the end of 2025, as the company aims to achieve its three-year plan ahead of schedule [90][91] Other Important Information - The company completed significant capital projects under budget, including the Base Plant U1 coke drum replacement and the Syncrude Mildred Lake West mine extension [19][20] - The balance sheet remains strong with net debt at $7,700,000,000, and the company expects to manage working capital effectively [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Has the stream day capacity risen on U1 after the project? - The stream day capacity remains around 140,000 barrels per day, but the upgraded metallurgy allows for extended turnaround intervals [40] Question: Is $8,000,000,000 the right net debt target going forward? - The $8,000,000,000 target was set based on a $50 per barrel WTI environment, and management is open to reevaluating this as cash flow generation improves [42][43] Question: How is the company driving stronger turnaround performance? - A systematic approach has been implemented, focusing on benchmarking, risk-based work selection, and detailed planning to achieve best-in-class turnaround performance [55][56] Question: Can you provide an update on Fort Hills' North Pit development? - Fort Hills is on track with its three-year plan, and the North Pit development is progressing as planned, with confidence in increasing production [61] Question: When will the company discuss growth projects like Firebag expansion? - The company plans to provide more details on growth projects at the end of 2025, as it aims to achieve its current three-year plan ahead of schedule [90][91] Question: What is the outlook for the refining macro environment? - The refining environment is expected to remain robust, particularly for diesel, with strong local and global demand supporting the business [96]