再再再call锑：反转在即，重视底部布局机会

Summary of Conference Call on Antimony Market Industry Overview - The antimony market is significantly influenced by the demand for photovoltaic (PV) glass, with prices rising from 40,000 RMB per ton in 2020 to 80,000-90,000 RMB in 2021, and stabilizing between 220,000-230,000 RMB due to increased PV installations and inventory depletion [1][2][3]. Key Points Antimony Price Dynamics - Antimony prices have experienced notable fluctuations, primarily driven by three phases: 1. Pre-2020: Prices were influenced by the overall macroeconomic environment, with major applications in flame retardants (50-60%), polyester catalysts (10%), and lead-acid batteries (5-10%) [2]. 2. 2020-2024: Prices surged due to PV glass demand, with a significant increase in installations [2][3]. 3. Post-September 2024: Prices are now heavily impacted by export conditions, with export controls leading to near-zero exports for extended periods, reducing demand by 40% [3][4]. Export Control Impact - Export controls have drastically reduced domestic demand elasticity, with actual exports dropping to 5-10% of last year's levels during May-June [4][5]. - The recent easing of export controls for state-owned enterprises and the lifting of restrictions on private enterprises indicate a potential recovery in exports, which could increase demand by approximately 20% if external demand returns to early 2024 levels [6][7]. PV Glass Production and Demand - PV glass production has decreased from nearly 600,000 tons in early May 2025 to about 510,000 tons, reflecting a 15-16% decline [5]. - Inventory days for PV glass have decreased from 34 days to 29 days, indicating low accumulation of downstream inventory [5]. Supply and Profitability of Antimony Producers - Antimony production has significantly declined due to raw material shortages, with many smelters operating at a loss even at prices of 180,000 RMB [8]. - Environmental regulations are expected to lead to a continued supply contraction over the next two to three years, particularly affecting small to medium-sized enterprises in major production regions like Guangxi, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Yunnan [9]. Companies to Watch - Companies such as Huaxi and Huayu are highlighted as key players in the current antimony market, benefiting from strong tin inventory support and successful gold mining projects [11][14]. - Hunan Gold is also noted for its dual focus on gold and antimony, which positions it well to capitalize on rising antimony prices [11][14]. Market Outlook - Antimony prices are projected to rise from 180,000 RMB to above 200,000 RMB, with expectations of maintaining around 250,000 RMB in the long term [10]. - The macroeconomic sentiment has caused stock fluctuations, but the outlook remains positive due to stable domestic demand and declining supply, with an anticipated annual demand growth of 3-4% [15]. Additional Insights - The ecological environment ministry's five-year heavy metal pollution inspection plan is expected to have long-term impacts on supply [8]. - The overall sentiment in the macro environment is stabilizing, which could lead to a recovery in related stocks, particularly those of Huaxi, Huayu, and Hunan Gold, which are expected to show strong performance [15].