再推钼：扰动持续，价格坚定看多

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the molybdenum industry, highlighting supply disruptions and price forecasts for 2025 [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Supply Disruptions: Domestic and international molybdenum supply is disrupted, affecting approximately 15,000 tons of metal globally, which is about 5%-6% of total supply. The domestic impact is around 11%-13% due to major mines in central China and Codelco's mine in South America being offline [1][3][7]. - Price Outlook: The expectation is for molybdenum prices to rise due to traditional demand peaks from August to October, compounded by supply issues. Despite recent price drops, the ongoing supply disruptions are anticipated to push prices higher [4][5][17]. - Demand Stability: Manufacturing and energy-related steel demand remains stable and is expected to grow, supporting molybdenum prices during peak demand seasons [5][12]. - Inventory Levels: Current wood market inventory is about 4,000 tons, which is higher than the previous year but still tight relative to the expected demand increase in 2025 [10][11]. Additional Important Content - Military Demand: Molybdenum's demand in the military sector is about 5%-10% under normal conditions, but could increase significantly in the event of armed conflict or strategic stockpiling [2][14]. - Resistance to Price Increases: Steel mills are resisting price hikes despite profitability and low inventory levels, indicating limited effectiveness of their resistance due to the upcoming demand peak [9][12]. - Strategic Metal Performance: The strategic metals sector, including molybdenum, is performing well, with price expectations between 5,000 and 5,500 yuan, and potential market capitalization growth for companies like Jinchuan Group [15][17]. - Company-Specific Insights: Guocheng Mining is positioned well due to its dual focus on molybdenum and lithium, with significant growth potential in its mining operations [16]. Conclusion - The molybdenum market is facing significant supply challenges that are expected to drive prices up in the near term. Demand from both traditional sectors and potential military applications adds complexity to the market dynamics. The overall outlook remains positive for molybdenum prices, supported by stable demand and strategic inventory management.