深海系列深度- 乘风破浪，爆发在即

Summary of Deep Sea Wind Power Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The deep sea wind power industry is receiving strong support from national policies, with the Energy Bureau planning deep sea offshore wind power demonstration projects, indicating that 2025 will be the inaugural year for deep sea development, and 2027 will see significant expansion [1][2] - The domestic nearshore wind power is primarily concentrated during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with approximately 50GW of remaining exploitable resources, expected to peak around 2026 or 2027 [1][4] Key Insights and Arguments - The average installation capacity for wind power in the next four years is projected to be around 13GW, significantly higher than the 7GW average from 2018 to 2021. By 2027, the total installed capacity is expected to reach 16GW, with an annual growth rate of 20% [1][5] - The cancellation of national subsidies at the end of 2021 and the adoption of a competitive pricing mechanism have led to a rapid decrease in industry costs, with the bare machine price dropping from 7,000 RMB/kW to 2,500 RMB/kW [1][6][7] - The deep sea wind power sector is expected to play a crucial role in future energy development, especially as nearshore resources become depleted [2][3] Regional Development and Cost Analysis - In Guangdong and Fujian, the maximum cost is around 11,000 RMB/kW, achieving over 6% return on investment with utilization hours exceeding 3,000. In East and North China, costs range from 8,000 to 9,000 RMB/kW, with similar returns achievable at over 2,300 hours of utilization [1][4] - The deep sea wind energy resources are abundant, with over 71,000GW of available offshore wind energy resources nationwide, of which deep sea accounts for over 70%. However, the current utilization rate is less than 5% [3][9] Policy and Economic Impact - The marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion RMB in 2024, contributing 8% to GDP, with the pure power generation segment contributing 51 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [3][12] - Various coastal provinces are accelerating the introduction of related policies, indicating significant future development potential [12][14] Future Projections and Industry Demand - The expected installed capacity for 2025 is around 10GW, with demand potentially reaching 12-13GW in 2026. By 2027, as deep sea development enters a major construction phase, installed capacity could exceed 20GW, with a potential to reach 24GW [17][18] - The compound annual growth rate for the next two years is expected to be 56% based on the 2025 figures [18] Impacts on the Supply Chain - The development of deep sea wind power will significantly enhance the valuation space of the entire industry chain, particularly benefiting the power transmission segment, including submarine cables, monitoring equipment, and converters [19] - Key areas of focus include the generator sets and components, with domestic leaders like Mingyang and Goldwind, while companies like Yunda and Sany are also making strides [19] Conclusion - The deep sea wind power industry is poised for substantial growth driven by supportive policies, technological advancements, and increasing demand, presenting significant investment opportunities and risks in the evolving energy landscape [1][2][19]