拼多多 - 2025 年第二季度展望 - 电商业务布局更优-PDD Holdings Inc -2Q25 Preview - Better positioned EC play

Summary of PDD Holdings Inc 2Q25 Preview Company Overview - Company: PDD Holdings Inc - Industry: E-Commerce in Asia Pacific Key Financial Metrics - Expected GMV Growth: 17% YoY in 2Q25 [1] - Expected Revenue Growth: 15% YoY in 2Q25 [1] - Projected Non-GAAP Net Profit: Rmb19.5 billion in 2Q25, up from Rmb16.9 billion in 1Q25 [2] - Interest and Investment Income: Expected to recover to Rmb3 billion in 2Q25 from Rmb223 million in 1Q25 [4] Core Insights - Market Positioning: PDD is better positioned in shelf-based E-Commerce compared to peers focusing on food delivery, which is experiencing intensified competition [1][5] - Subsidy Strategy: Continued subsidies to merchants and consumers are expected to impact the take rate, leading to slower OMS growth compared to GMV growth [2] - Temu's Financial Performance: Anticipated narrowed loss for Temu to Rmb1.9 billion in 2Q25 from Rmb3.4 billion in 1Q25 due to reduced S&M spending [3] Earnings Estimates Adjustments - Revenue Estimates: Increased by 2% for 2025, 8% for 2026, and 12% for 2027 [10] - Earnings Estimates: Decreased by 5% for 2025, 6% for 2026, and 4% for 2027 due to the shift to a fully-entrusted model in the US [10] Competitive Landscape - Rational Competition: The competition in shelf-based E-Commerce is expected to be more rational, benefiting PDD's supply-side investments [5] - Lower Comparison Base: PDD will have a lower comparison base for revenue and profit in 2H25, enhancing its competitive position [5] Valuation and Price Target - Price Target: Maintained at US$130, implying a 16x 2025e non-GAAP P/E ratio [6][14] - Market Capitalization: Approximately US$144.15 billion [7] Financial Summary - Total Revenue Projections: Expected to reach Rmb498.3 billion in 2025, with a gross profit margin of 56.7% [13] - Net Profit Projections: Expected to be Rmb75.4 billion in 2025, with a non-GAAP net margin of 19.2% [12][13] Additional Insights - Interest and Investment Income Volatility: Significant decline in interest and investment income in 1Q25 attributed to market volatility, with expectations of recovery in 2Q25 [4] - Long-term Model for Temu: The fully-entrusted model is projected to account for 41% of Temu's GMV by 2030, indicating a strategic shift in cross-border E-Commerce operations [11] This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings preview for PDD Holdings Inc, highlighting its financial expectations, competitive positioning, and strategic adjustments in response to market dynamics.