半导体_北美对232条款的看法-Semiconductors North America Thoughts on Section 232

Summary of Semiconductor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Semiconductors - Region: North America - Current View: Attractive [5][7] Key Points and Arguments Section 232 Tariffs - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on all chips and semiconductors entering the U.S., but companies committed to building in the U.S. would be exempt from these tariffs [2][3] - The immediate implementation of such tariffs is a concern, but companies may have time to adjust, making the real cost the higher expenses of U.S. chip manufacturing [2][3] - The timeline for companies to demonstrate intent to build in the U.S. is crucial for understanding the impact of these tariffs [2][3] Reshoring and Market Dynamics - Reshoring to the U.S. is expected to benefit semiconductor equipment (SPE) companies, with a projected increase in wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) intensity above the recent average of 15% [7][10] - The U.S. consumes approximately 30-35% of semiconductors but only 10-15% of WFE, indicating a significant opportunity gap of about $140-160 million in the semiconductor market and $20-24 billion in WFE [10] - Companies like Micron are highlighted as key players in memory WFE, with their U.S. manufacturing capabilities being a competitive advantage [10] Company-Specific Insights - Intel (INTC): Faces challenges in building a successful foundry business, especially with TSMC's expansion in Arizona. Major customer commitments are needed for Intel to advance its 14A development [8][10] - Texas Instruments (TXN): Benefits from shipping into the U.S. from domestic fabs, but has seen a threefold increase in fixed costs, making it less competitive against fab-light models [8][10] - GlobalFoundries (GFS): Expected to benefit from reshoring, but competition remains if Taiwanese foundries invest in the U.S. [12] - Amkor (AMKR): Starting investments in the U.S. for packaging facilities, but faces challenges due to labor costs [12] Strategic Recommendations - Companies should prepare for a multipolar manufacturing strategy, focusing on building in regions where products are consumed [3][7] - The biggest tailwind is anticipated for memory WFE, while mature node logic may see less relative benefit due to existing capital expenditures by competitors [10] Market Implications - Strong retaliatory tariffs are expected globally, complicating the semiconductor landscape [3] - The reshoring trend will likely shift demand from other regions, impacting global supply chains [10] Additional Important Information - Morgan Stanley has potential conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies mentioned in the report [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering multiple factors in investment decisions, rather than relying solely on this research [5]