从出清走向成熟，从成长进阶价值 - 四问四答快递行业

Summary of the Express Delivery Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The express delivery industry has experienced significant growth, with package volume growth outpacing e-commerce GMV and social retail sales, indicating a close relationship with the average order value (AOV) of e-commerce platforms [1][2] - The industry has transitioned through various stages: from the embryonic phase before 2011, explosive growth from 2011 to 2016, a clearing phase from 2017 to 2021, and currently in the late clearing phase since 2021, characterized by reduced competition intensity and a shift from price competition to value competition [1][4] Key Insights - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 10% in 2024, with actual growth potentially reaching close to 20%, driven by the rise of low-ticket e-commerce platforms and live-streaming e-commerce [2] - Major players like Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Kuaishou have significantly contributed to package volume, with Pinduoduo accounting for approximately 35% to 40% and Douyin and Kuaishou contributing nearly 30% [2] - The average order value (LOV) is declining due to the increasing share of low-ticket e-commerce platforms, which has profound implications for sellers' logistics cost sensitivity [2] Regulatory Impact - Regulatory interventions in 2021, such as the increase in delivery fees, have improved the profitability of the franchise ecosystem, although challenges remain for franchisees facing intense competition [6][9] - Measures like price floor restrictions in regions such as Guangdong are expected to stabilize operations at grassroots levels and support value recovery for brands and franchisees [3][9] Challenges Faced - The industry is currently facing fierce competition, with many secondary franchise outlets experiencing losses and cash flow issues, leading to salary payment delays for delivery personnel [7] - The distribution of profits between headquarters and channels is critical for the overall competitive capability of express delivery brands [7] Future Outlook - In the short term, companies with weak single-package profitability, such as Shentong, Yunda, and Jitu, are expected to recover profitability more quickly [10] - In the medium to long term, leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong are anticipated to gain market share due to their network capabilities and smaller price differentials [10] - The industry is expected to evolve towards brand and value competition, with regulatory measures playing a significant role in curbing malicious price competition [8][9]