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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Telecom & Networking Equipment in North America [1] Core Company Insights Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE.O) - Price Target Change: Increased from $85.00 to $92.00 [2] - Performance Expectations: Anticipated a revenue beat of less than 2% and approximately 5% EPS increase for the upcoming quarter [16] - Growth Drivers: Recovery in telco and demand from Google and EMLs are expected to contribute positively [10] - Long-term Targets: No changes expected to long-term targets; however, upside potential exists due to strong demand in Cloud Light business [10] - Revenue Estimates: Expected revenue growth of $1,359 million in 2024, increasing to $2,511 million by 2027 [36] Coherent Corp (COHR.N) - Price Target Change: Increased from $92.00 to $97.00 [2] - Performance Expectations: Expected revenue beat of 2.5% to 4% and an EPS increase of 8% to 10% for the upcoming quarter [16] - Growth Drivers: Strength in datacom and telecom segments expected to drive revenue growth [10] - Long-term Outlook: Analyst Day laid out a roadmap, but near-term upside is needed to maintain momentum [10] - Revenue Estimates: Expected revenue growth of $5,779 million in 2025, increasing to $6,628 million by 2027 [57] Market Dynamics - Cloud Capex Revisions: Positive revisions in cloud capex are driving optimism in optical AI stocks, with expected growth of 54% in 2025 [4] - Investor Sentiment: Investors are favoring a pair trade strategy of long LITE and short COHR post-FQ4 prints, reflecting a preference for COHR due to its better positioning [4][7] - Multiple Expansion: Current multiples are hovering around one-year averages, indicating limited opportunity for further expansion in the near term [4] Risks and Considerations - Tariff Impacts: Tariffs are expected to materially limit earnings and multiple in the near term, particularly affecting gross margins [34][43] - Market Volatility: The volatility in end markets and uncertainty around AI spending may cap the multiples for both companies [43][49] - Operational Challenges: COHR faces challenges in executing its vision laid out during the Analyst Day, which could limit changes to its margin profile [49] Additional Insights - Investor Feedback: Investors are generally optimistic about the recovery in telco and the potential for both companies to outperform in the upcoming quarter [4][10] - Long-term Growth Opportunities: Both companies are positioned to benefit from secular growth trends in AI and datacom, although challenges remain in the industrial and consumer electronics markets [49][62] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the performance expectations, market dynamics, and potential risks associated with Lumentum Holdings Inc and Coherent Corp.