中国风电_应用人工智能识别风电股票机会_7 月风电发电量增China wind power – blowing in the wind_ Applying AI to identify wind power stock opportunities_ wind power generation growth in July is behind capacity growth, on weak wind speed

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Research on China Wind Power Industry Overview - The report focuses on the wind power industry in China, particularly the performance and forecasts related to wind farm operators, with a specific emphasis on Longyuan Power [1][30]. Core Insights and Arguments - Power Generation Forecasts: J.P. Morgan employs machine learning techniques to predict monthly power generation for wind farms, indicating that July's wind power generation for Longyuan is expected to grow by approximately 4%, which is below the 10% organic capacity growth anticipated for FY24 [1][4][6]. - Market Reaction: A negative share price reaction is expected following the release of Longyuan's July data due to the discrepancy between generation growth and capacity growth [1][4]. - Historical Performance: Between FY19-23, annual wind power generation growth closely tracked capacity growth, but monthly growth exhibited significant volatility, ranging from -17% to +51% [4][10]. - Curtailment and Wind Speed Issues: FY24 has seen a decoupling of generation growth (-2%) from capacity growth (+6% YoY) due to rising curtailment rates and lower wind speeds [4][10]. - Investment Strategy: A long-short strategy based on predicted generation growth deviations from capacity growth could have yielded an average annual return of approximately 8.5% from 2019 to 2024 [4][16]. Company-Specific Insights - Longyuan Power: - Longyuan is identified as the largest wind farm operator in China, with a total consolidated wind installed capacity of 30.4 GW as of the end of 2024 [31]. - The company is rated "Overweight" with a price target of HK$7.60, supported by secular capacity growth driven by China's carbon-neutrality goals and an increasing mix of grid-parity projects [30][31]. - The report highlights Longyuan's lower gearing (174% FY25E) compared to Datang RE (357% FY25E), justifying a higher target multiple for Longyuan [32]. - Datang Renewable Energy: - Datang RE is rated "Neutral" with a price target of HK$2.20, reflecting limited visible catalysts in the near term despite its significant wind power capacity [35]. Additional Important Information - Wind Speed Variability: The report notes significant regional differences in wind speed for July 2025, with Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and Shanghai experiencing increases of 21.8%, 20.3%, and 17.6% YoY, respectively, while Guizhou, Hunan, and Jiangxi saw decreases of 34.2%, 29.9%, and 23.6% [26][27]. - Model Accuracy: The predictive model for Longyuan's power generation has an average accuracy of approximately 95%, based on historical data from January 2014 to July 2025 [21]. - Risks to Ratings: Potential risks to Longyuan's rating and price target include lower-than-expected utilization hours, lower tariffs, and higher finance costs [32][35]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state and future outlook of the wind power industry in China, particularly focusing on Longyuan Power and its competitive positioning within the market.