中国房地产_7 月房价跌幅因挂牌量增加和销售疲软小幅扩大-China Property_ Home Price Decline Widens Slightly in July amid Higher Listings and Weaker Sales

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - Industry: China Property - Date: August 3, 2025 - Key Focus: Home price trends, sales performance, and market sentiment in the property sector Key Points Home Price Trends - Secondary home prices in major cities experienced a slight decline in July, with a month-on-month (m-m) drop of 1.1% and a year-on-year (y-y) decrease of 9.8% across approximately 50 sample cities [2] - 87% of the tracked cities reported m-m price decreases, slightly down from 93% in June [2][17] - Secondary listing prices fell 0.5% m-m in July, with 55% of cities showing downward adjustments [2][18] Listings and Sales Performance - Total listings increased by 0.6% m-m in July, with 76% of cities recording increases, compared to 71% in June [3] - New secondary listings softened by 5% m-m, with only 23% of cities showing increases [3] - Visits to agent shops dropped 7% m-m, indicating a seasonal trend, but y-y visits were up 20% [4][19] Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The Politburo meeting in July showed little focus on the property industry, suggesting muted policy responses until significant price declines are observed [5] - High inventory levels in both primary and secondary markets, combined with softening sales, are expected to maintain downward pressure on home prices [5] - Anticipated weak home sales in the second half of the year could further exacerbate price declines [5] Investment Recommendations - A defensive and selective investment approach is advised due to weakening indicators affecting developers' sales, margins, and liquidity [6] - Recommended stocks include: - CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK) as consumption beneficiaries - C&D (1908.HK) and Greentown Management (9979.HK) for high dividend yields [6] Risks and Considerations - Risks to upside include stronger-than-expected contracted sales and accelerated openings of new malls [28][30] - Risks to downside involve weaker-than-expected sales and slower land acquisitions [28][30] Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring market conditions and adjusting investment strategies accordingly, given the current volatility in the property sector [5][6]