商品市场持仓与资金流向-随着美国关税政策逐渐明晰，全球商品流动降至 10 年来平均水平以下-Commodity Market Positioning & Flows

Summary of J.P. Morgan Commodity Market Positioning & Flows Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global commodities market, highlighting recent trends in commodity flows and investor positioning as of August 4, 2025 Key Points Global Commodity Market Trends - The estimated value of global commodity market open interest decreased by 3.4% week-over-week (WOW), amounting to a decline of $52 billion, bringing the total to $1.48 trillion [3][9][12] - This decline marks the largest drop in five weeks, influenced by significant outflows in metals and energy markets, particularly crude oil, copper, gold, and natural gas [3][10] Investor Positioning - The net investor position across global commodity futures markets fell by 6.9% WOW, totaling $137 billion [3][15] - Precious metals saw a decrease in net length by $13.4 billion, while base metals increased by 15% WOW to $24.5 billion [3][15] - Agricultural markets experienced a 15% decrease in net positioning, while energy markets saw a 43% increase in net length [3][15] Commodity-Specific Insights - Energy Markets: Open interest value decreased by $12 billion WOW to $642 billion, primarily due to outflows from crude oil and petroleum products [5][9] - Precious Metals: Open interest dropped by 4% WOW to $245 billion, with significant outflows in gold and silver [5][27] - Base Metals: Open interest plunged by 9% WOW to $169 billion, heavily impacted by copper market outflows [5][26] - Agricultural Markets: Open interest decreased by 2% WOW to $321 billion, driven by weaker prices in soybean and cotton markets [5][29] Tariff and Policy Impacts - The U.S. Administration's recent tariff policies, including a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, have contributed to market volatility and price declines [3][5] - The anticipated continuation of a 90-day pause on U.S.-China tariffs is expected to influence market sentiment positively [3] Inventory Levels - The Global Commodities Inventory Monitor (GCIM) indicated a slight decline in inventory availability to 59.13 days-of-use, the lowest for July in the series [3][4][55] - Ex-China inventory availability increased to 50.7 days-of-use, reflecting rising visible inventories of copper and aluminum [3][4] Price Momentum - Price momentum across commodities was mixed, with sharp decreases in base metals and agricultural commodities, while some energy prices showed resilience [6][10] Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the commodities market is cautious, with heightened uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade relations and global economic growth [6][10] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical developments, as they significantly impact commodity flows and investor behavior [3][6][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan report on commodity market positioning and flows, providing a comprehensive overview of current trends and investor sentiment in the commodities sector.