美国通胀监测-消费者价格指数前瞻：关税持续推升通胀US Inflation Monitor-CPI Preview Tariffs continue to lift inflation

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the US Inflation Monitor and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) trends in North America, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation rates [1][6][24]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Core CPI Trends: - Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.32% month-over-month (m/m) and 3.04% year-over-year (y/y) in July, up from 0.23% in June. This increase is primarily driven by core goods inflation, particularly in categories exposed to tariffs [1][6][19]. 2. Core Goods Inflation: - There is an anticipated acceleration in core goods inflation, with categories such as apparel, appliances, furniture, and select electronics expected to continue rising. New car prices are also projected to see a modest increase [7][14][32]. 3. Housing Market Dynamics: - Housing inflation is expected to remain stable, with a slight decline in Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) offset by rising rents for primary residences. The overall rents inflation trend is estimated at 0.29% m/m, with a gradual deceleration expected through 2025 [8][16]. 4. Core Services Performance: - Core services, excluding housing, are projected to remain flat, with mixed signals across components. Medical services are expected to decline, while airfares, hotel rates, and car insurance are likely to show stronger inflation prints [9][19]. 5. Energy Inflation: - Energy inflation is expected to revert to negative territory, which will bring the headline CPI below the core CPI. The timing of tariff pass-through remains a critical question, complicating the prediction of inflation data [10][19]. 6. Airfares and Hotel Rates: - Airfares are likely to see a modest increase, supported by rising oil prices, while hotel inflation is expected to rebound from a weak June print. However, average daily rates suggest hotel inflation may remain negative [17][41]. 7. Tariff Impact: - There are clearer signs of tariff-related price pressures, particularly in goods categories heavily exposed to tariffs. This trend is expected to continue, with leading indicators suggesting ongoing inflation in goods without sharp acceleration [24][25]. 8. New Car Prices: - Data from JD Power indicates a mild acceleration in new car prices, with average transaction prices increasing from 1.4% y/y to 3.1% y/y. This aligns with recent price increase announcements from major manufacturers [32][33]. Additional Important Insights - Economic Models and Predictions: - Economic models typically estimate the magnitude of price shifts due to tariffs but struggle with timing and pace, making it challenging to pinpoint when these effects will manifest in inflation data [10][12]. - Potential Risks: - There are upside risks to the July core CPI print, with a reading rounding to 0.4% being more likely than one rounding to 0.2%. This reflects the potential for sudden tariff-related price increases during the summer months [12][19]. - CPI Forecasts: - The forecast for headline CPI is 0.25% m/m, with softer energy inflation contributing to this figure. The CPI NSA Index is projected at 323.218 for July [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the trends and expectations surrounding inflation in the US economy, particularly in relation to tariffs and various market sectors.