全球存储技术_7 月出口强劲，HBM4 订单推进中，第三季度指引核查-Global Memory Tech_ Weekly theme_ strong July exports, HBM4 order in progress, 3Q guidance check

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Semiconductor Industry: The focus is on the memory semiconductor sector, particularly in South Korea, with a notable recovery in exports in July 2025, showing a 32% YoY growth compared to an average of 11% from January to June 2025. The total export amount reached US$15 billion, nearing record highs [1][20][23]. - Key Contributors: The growth is attributed to increased capital expenditures (capex) from US Big Tech companies rather than inventory restocking. Analysts have raised capex forecasts for these companies by 20% for the second half of 2025 and for 2026-2027 [1][25]. HBM4 Orders and Pricing - HBM4 Contracts: SK Hynix is nearing the final stages of contract negotiations for HBM4 with major US tech firms, including NVIDIA. Volume confirmations for deliveries in 4Q25 and 2026 are expected soon, with initial price requests likely exceeding 30% above HBM3e due to low yield and small economies of scale [2]. - Price Premium: A 15-20% price premium for HBM4 over HBM3e is considered reasonable, reflecting the cost increases associated with more advanced technology [2]. 3Q Guidance and ASP Trends - ASP Expectations: Memory chipmakers anticipate a 5-10% increase in average selling prices (ASP) for 3Q, driven by various factors including a 10%+ increase in legacy DRAM and a 5% increase in DDR5. The forecast indicates a 17% QoQ growth in DRAM sales, contrasting with an 8% growth for NAND [3]. - Sales Growth YoY: DRAM sales are expected to grow 38% YoY, while NAND is projected to decline by 6% YoY [3]. Capex and Market Sentiment - Capex Discipline: Despite a 20% revenue guidance cut for Tokyo Electron, the overall memory capex is expected to rise by 18% in 2025 and 7% in 2026. The industry is characterized by disciplined spending, with strong growth anticipated only in HBM and advanced packaging areas [4]. - Market Sentiment: There are no signs of a hard landing in memory capex, indicating a stable outlook for the sector [4]. Memory Pricing Trends - Spot Prices: Recent data shows a 1% increase in DRAM spot prices for DDR5, with a 20% increase YoY. DDR4 prices have also seen significant increases, with 8Gb DDR4 prices rising 200%+ YTD [7][61]. - NAND Prices: NAND spot prices have shown slight recovery, with 1% increases observed in recent weeks, driven by production cuts and demand recovery [54]. HBM Market Forecast - Future Growth: The global HBM market is projected to reach US$35.4 billion in 2025, with a 42% YoY growth expected in 2026. The ASP for HBM is anticipated to decline slightly, but robust bit growth is expected to offset this [75]. - Market Share: SK Hynix is expected to maintain a dominant position in the HBM market, with a projected market share of 60%+ by 2027, while Samsung is expected to hold around 20% [77]. Additional Insights - Inventory Levels: Memory industry inventories are nearing normal levels, with expectations to stabilize by mid-2025 [10]. - Utilization Rates: DRAM utilization rates are expected to recover steadily to 85%+ by the second half of 2025 [11]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the positive trends in the semiconductor memory industry, particularly in DRAM and HBM segments, while also addressing pricing dynamics and market forecasts.