亚洲科技_ASIC服务器将成为台湾 ABF 供应商的关键驱动力，鉴于材料短缺，定价前景向好-Asia Technology_ ASIC servers to be key driver for Taiwan ABF suppliers, with favorable pricing outlook given material shortages;

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the Taiwan ABF (Ajinomoto Build-up Film) substrate market, particularly in relation to ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) AI servers and their suppliers, including Unimicron, NYPCB, and Ibiden. Key Points and Arguments Market Demand and Growth Projections - The 2026/27 AI server ABF Total Addressable Market (TAM) has been raised by 35%/55%, reflecting a strong demand outlook for ASIC AI servers, with projected shipments of 3.4 million and 4.7 million units in 2026E/27E respectively, compared to 5.6 million and 7.1 million for GPU AI chips [1][8] - The average selling price (ASP) for ASIC AI substrates is expected to be US$180/US$220 in 2026E/27E, while GPU AI substrates are projected at US$143/US$183 [1][8] - The combined market share for Taiwan's ASIC AI substrate suppliers (Unimicron and NYPCB) is estimated to be 71%/65%/59% for 2025E/26E/27E, significantly higher than the 10%/19%/21% for GPU AI server market share [9] Supplier Performance and Projections - Unimicron and NYPCB are expected to benefit the most from the improving demand outlook, with revenue contributions from AI servers projected to reach 16% and 20% respectively by 2027E, up from previous estimates of 13% and 12% [1][4] - Ibiden is also anticipated to gain market share in the ASIC AI server substrate market due to its technology leadership and plans for 40% capacity expansion from 2025-27 [2] Pricing and Supply Chain Dynamics - Prolonged lead times for high-end ABF substrates are expected due to T-glass material shortages, which could lead to higher pricing despite a low equipment utilization rate (UTR) forecast of 75% for 2H25-1H26E [3][39] - Price hikes for ABF substrates are anticipated to occur in late September/early October, coinciding with quarterly contract negotiations, but may not significantly impact earnings outlook for suppliers in 2H26 [3][40] - The overall ABF substrate market is projected to grow at an 18% CAGR from 2025-27E, driven primarily by AI server applications [38] Earnings Revisions and Target Price Adjustments - Unimicron's earnings estimates for 2025E/26E/27E have been raised by 1%/3%/3%, reflecting higher expected demand for ASIC AI server substrates [51] - The target price for Unimicron has been increased to NT$116 from NT$110 [4][55] - NYPCB's earnings estimates have been revised upwards by 96%/67%/32% for 2025E/26E/27E, with a new target price of NT$125 [57][62] Long-term Outlook and Risks - The long-term outlook for high-end ABF substrate suppliers remains positive, driven by the overall AI server demand uptrend, with an 81% CAGR expected from 2024-27E [10] - Key risks include slower-than-expected recovery in PC demand, delays in ABF substrate upgrades, and challenges in qualifying new high-end capacities [66] Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the potential conflict of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with the companies covered in the research [4] - The analysis suggests that while short-term oversupply may weigh on stock performance, the long-term demand growth for high-end substrates will support earnings [44]