中国股票策略 -A 股情绪平稳，交易量下降China Equity Strategy-A-Share Sentiment Remained Flat With Lower Trading Volume

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: A-Shares in China - Current Sentiment: Investor sentiment in the A-share market remained flat, with a weighted Morgan Stanley A-share Sentiment Indicator (MSASI) at 95% as of July 30, 2025, unchanged from the previous period [1][5][7] - Trading Volume: Average daily turnover for A-shares decreased by 7% to RMB 1,675 billion, while equity futures and Northbound turnover dropped by 9% to RMB 264 billion and 10% to RMB 107 billion, respectively [1][2] Core Insights - Market Caution: Investors are cautioned against underpricing the risks associated with US-China tensions, with a preference for A-shares in the short term due to expected higher volatility [1][12] - Earnings Estimates: The consensus earnings estimate revision breadth remains negative but has shown slight improvement compared to the previous week [1] - Export Trends: Macro data indicates a divergence in export mix, with exports to the US and ASEAN moderating, while exports to Taiwan and Korea rebounded, likely due to tech-specific factors [3] Additional Important Information - Home Prices: The property market shows a slight widening in home price declines, with transaction home prices dropping 1.1% month-on-month and 9.8% year-on-year in approximately 50 sample cities [10] - Trade Negotiations: Uncertainty over trade negotiations is expected to weigh on home sales, contributing to a cautious outlook on home prices [10] - Future Monitoring: Key factors to monitor include the upcoming NPC Standing Committee meeting, clarity on macro policy, and the conclusion of the 2Q earnings season, which could alleviate profit-taking pressures [13] Market Preferences - Near-term Preference: A-shares are preferred in the near term due to anticipated volatility from the expiration of the US-China trade truce and weakening consumption momentum [12] - Long-term Outlook: The setup for the Hong Kong market is expected to improve post-September as risk factors become clearer [12] Conclusion - The A-share market is currently experiencing flat sentiment with declining trading volumes, while macroeconomic factors and geopolitical tensions are influencing investor behavior and market dynamics. Monitoring upcoming policy meetings and trade negotiations will be crucial for future market direction.