2025-08-08 05:02Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the implications of the US government's announcement of a 100% tariff on semiconductors imported to the US, particularly focusing on European semiconductor and semiconductor capital (semicap) companies [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Tariff Announcement: The US administration has announced a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, with exemptions for companies investing in US manufacturing [1]. - Impact on European Companies: European power/analog semiconductor companies may experience near-term impacts, but specific details on implementation timelines are still awaited [4]. - Infineon Technologies: - Infineon's revenue exposure to the US market is estimated to be in the low to mid-teens percentage range, with a modest percentage from non-US produced semiconductors [4]. - The company has manufacturing agreements in the US that could mitigate some tariff impacts, although full offset is not expected [4]. - Infineon's automotive-grade microcontrollers (MCUs) are produced by a leading Asian foundry, which may further reduce tariff impacts [5]. - Financial Performance Expectations: If Infineon's non-US produced semiconductors are affected by the tariffs, the financial performance impact is expected to be limited due to: 1. High customer resistance to switching from high-end semiconductor products [5]. 2. Reduced dependence on power semiconductors in the US electric vehicle (EV) market [5]. 3. A strong position in the Chinese EV market, which has shown stronger demand [5]. Company Ratings and Price Targets - ASML: Rated Buy with a price target of €935 based on a 32x P/E multiple for 2HCY26+1HCY27 [6]. - ASMI: Rated Buy with a price target of €615 based on a 21x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2HCY26+1HCY27E [7]. - BESI: Rated Buy with a price target of €161 based on a 26x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2HCY26+1HCY27E [8]. - Infineon: Rated Buy with a price target of €46.5 based on an 11x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2HCY26+1HCY27 [9]. - STMicroelectronics (STM): Rated Neutral with a price target of €22.6 / ADR $26.5 based on a 6x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2HCY26+1HCY27 [11]. Risks and Considerations - ASML Risks: Key risks include delays in EUV technology, capital expenditure cyclicality, and unfavorable market share shifts [6]. - ASMI Risks: Risks include worsening semiconductor cycles, stronger competition, and high customer concentration [7]. - BESI Risks: Risks involve customer spending cyclicality, delays in hybrid bonding adoption, and increasing competition [8]. - Infineon Risks: Risks include weaker end markets, lower-than-expected EV adoption rates, and negative macroeconomic dynamics affecting consumer demand [9]. - STM Risks: A high single-digit percentage of revenues could be impacted by the tariffs, but efforts to expand in other geographies may offset some headwinds [10]. Additional Insights - The announcement primarily focused on semiconductor production, with ASML having a significant manufacturing presence in the US [10]. - Leading-edge semiconductor equipment providers may be exempt from the tariffs due to existing or future commitments to US manufacturing, which could affect demand levels [10].