再论新消费配置机会

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - New Consumption Sector: The new consumption sector has experienced a significant adjustment, with valuations dropping to low levels. Mainstream companies have a PEG ratio close to 1, indicating potential opportunities around mid-year reports and into October. The growth rate of new consumption significantly outpaces traditional consumption, with leading companies maintaining over 30% growth, benefiting from online channels and expected improvements in GMV around the Double Eleven pre-sale period [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Trends: The new consumption sector showed strong performance in Q1 2025, but faced volatility in March, leading to a rebound in April and May. Recent adjustments in the market have led to a stabilization and potential recovery [2][5]. - Valuation and Pricing: The PEG ratio for mainstream companies has reached around 1, reflecting previous pessimistic expectations. The paper industry is expected to transition from a left-side market to a right-side market, with price increases confirmed for black paper and cultural paper [2][14]. - Investment Recommendations: Companies with strong performance, ongoing category expansion, and innovative business models are recommended for investment, including Rui Chen, Bai Long Chuang Yuan, and others. The beverage and snack sectors are highlighted as the fastest-growing areas within the food and beverage industry [6][15]. Emerging Opportunities - Technological Impact: New technologies are reshaping consumer behavior, particularly in emerging fields like trendy toys and gold jewelry. Leading companies in these sectors are experiencing record growth, with a favorable chip structure and reasonable valuations [7][9]. - AI Applications: AI is widely applied in the consumer sector, with significant developments in smart glasses and AI education products. Companies like Tianli International Holdings are noted for their effective AI-driven educational programs [10][11]. Sector-Specific Insights - Home Appliances: The focus is on robotic vacuum cleaners, with leading companies like Roborock showing resilience against the weakening of national subsidies. The expected growth in the second half of the year is optimistic, with valuations remaining below 25 times [12]. - Paper Industry: The paper sector is transitioning to a price increase cycle, with clear buy signals for companies like Sun Paper and Jiulong Paper [13][14]. - Pet Industry: The upcoming Asia Pet Expo in August is expected to highlight the rapid rise of domestic brands in the pet food sector, with companies like Zhongchong and Guai Bao Pet showing strong potential [22]. - Luxury Goods: The luxury goods sector is experiencing a downturn, but high-net-worth customer loyalty is increasing. Brands like Prada and Coach are recommended for their potential resilience and growth [19][20]. Additional Noteworthy Points - Investment in Apparel: The new retail format in the apparel sector is showing significant breakthroughs, particularly with brands like Hailan Home collaborating with JD.com [16][17]. - Livestock Sector: The pig farming sector is seeing a slight increase in output, but prices may face pressure. Companies like Muyuan and Wen's are recommended for investment [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the new consumption sector and related industries.