美国经济- 对数据质量下降的担忧 - 从噪音中提取信号-US Economics Weekly-Fears of data quality erosion Extracting the signal from the noise

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the US Economics and the implications of data quality erosion on economic indicators, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation trends [1][9][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - Data Quality Concerns: The quality of US economic data has been compromised due to budget dysfunction and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) cutbacks, leading to increased reliance on imputed prices rather than actual prices [1][7][9][10]. - CPI Projections: For July, the expectation is for headline CPI to rise by 0.25% month-over-month (m/m) and 2.76% year-over-year (y/y), while core CPI is projected to increase by 0.32% m/m and 3.04% y/y [30][31][54]. - Tariff Impact: The acceleration in inflation is attributed to tariff pass-through, indicating that tariffs are contributing to rising prices, particularly in core goods [30][31][54]. - Imputation Methods: The BLS has shifted to using more imputed prices due to data collection suspensions, which raises concerns about the accuracy of inflation measurements. The share of lower-quality "different cell" imputations has increased to 35% of all imputations by June [23][28][29]. Additional Important Content - Federal Budget Dynamics: The federal budget has operated under continuing resolutions for a significant portion of the past two decades, limiting the ability of agencies to effectively carry out their objectives [11][15]. - Economic Volatility: The reliance on imputed data is expected to increase volatility in CPI readings, with a potential rise in the standard deviation of inflation estimates [27][28]. - Monetary Policy Outlook: If inflation continues to firm, the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September may decrease, especially if the unemployment rate remains low [33][35]. - Trade Dynamics: High-frequency container traffic data indicates a slowdown in trade volumes, with real imports falling by 30.3% in Q2 2025 after a surge of 37.9% in Q1 2025 [41][42]. Conclusion - The current economic landscape is characterized by significant uncertainties regarding data quality and inflation metrics, driven by external factors such as tariffs and internal challenges like budgetary constraints. The implications for monetary policy and economic forecasts are critical for investors and policymakers alike [1][9][10][30][31].