2025-08-11 02:58Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Biopharma industry in North America with a comprehensive analysis of the US drug market as per IQVIA Rx data [1][6]. Core Insights - The Total Prescription Year-over-Year (YoY) growth for the week ending August 1, 2025, was reported at +2.8%, an increase from +1.7% the previous week and +2.6% over the past 12 weeks [1][6]. - For the week ended August 1, the US total market weekly TRx YoY change was +2.8%, compared to +0.9% a year ago. The rolling 4-week TRx YoY was +2.9% and the rolling 12-week TRx YoY was +2.6% [2]. Company-Specific Developments - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): - The drug Cobenfy was approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024. The current scripts are approximately 2,010 for the week, up from 1,950 the previous week. To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy's TRx needs to track at ~2-3x the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches [3]. - The consensus estimate for Cobenfy has decreased from $196 million to $171 million, implying that approximately 129K TRx are required to meet these estimates [3]. - Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX): - The drug Journavx was approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, with current scripts at approximately 6,800, up from 6,430 the previous week. It is noted that hospital scripts, which account for about 35% of total scripts, are not captured by IQVIA [4]. - To achieve a sales target of $78 million, approximately 345K total scripts are needed, assuming a $225 net price per script [4]. - Gilead Sciences (GILD): - The launch comparison for Yeztugo (lenacapavir) shows current TRx at approximately 210, down from 300 the previous week. The injectable formulation accounts for 50% of total TRx [5]. Additional Insights - The extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was reported at +1.9%, which is below the TRx YoY growth [2]. - The sequential weekly TRx growth was -0.1%, an improvement from -1.2% the week before [2]. - The biopharma industry view is categorized as attractive, while the major pharmaceuticals industry view is in-line [7]. Notable Trends - The momentum of top outpatient drugs indicates varying performance across different companies, with notable declines in some established drugs like Humira (AbbVie) showing a -40% YoY change, while newer drugs like Mounjaro (Eli Lilly) and Zepbound (Eli Lilly) show significant growth rates of 69% and 257% respectively [24]. Conclusion - The conference call highlights a positive trend in the US drug market with specific growth in total prescriptions. However, individual company performance varies significantly, with newer drugs showing strong growth potential while established drugs face declines. The insights provided can guide investment decisions in the biopharma sector.