美国消费者图表集：2025 年第三季度 - 你现在需要了解的内容-US Consumer Chartbook 3Q 2025_ What You Need to Know Now

Summary of US Consumer Chartbook 3Q 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US consumer market, analyzing labor market trends, income, consumption, sentiment, and credit conditions. Key Points Labor Market & Income - Real labor income growth has decreased from an average of nearly 3.5% in 2024 to just over 2% in 2025, with expectations for further decline due to slowing labor demand and rising inflation [3][12][25] - Employment growth has slowed significantly, with a 3-month average payroll growth now at 35,000, down from 168,000 last year [11][33] - The middle-income cohort, primarily in manufacturing, has seen the weakest employment growth but maintained wage growth of over 4.2% year-on-year [18][23] - The lowest income cohort's wage growth has weakened to just above inflation at 3.2% year-on-year as of June [19][25] - Real disposable personal income growth is projected to slow from 2.2% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026 [8][57] Consumption & Sentiment - Consumption is expected to slow in the second half of 2025, with real consumption growth forecasted to drop to 0.6% in 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, down from 3.1% in 2024 [4][7] - Goods consumption is anticipated to decline more sharply due to tariff-induced price increases, particularly affecting durable goods [79] - Consumer sentiment has shown some recovery but remains below last year's levels, with employment expectations continuing to soften [60][62] - Spending intentions for back-to-school shopping are similar to last year, with a net 34% of consumers intending to spend more [66] Credit & Balance Sheet - Household debt has increased, with consumer revolving credit growth slowing, and debt-to-disposable income ratios remaining below pre-COVID levels [108][120] - Delinquencies in auto loans are rising, particularly among subprime borrowers, while credit card delinquencies have stabilized slightly [120] - The personal saving rate was steady at 4.7%, reflecting a drawdown of excess savings accumulated during the pandemic [92] Additional Insights - The report highlights the impact of inflation on lower-income cohorts, which tend to experience higher inflation rates due to their consumption patterns [26] - The fiscal bill is expected to add around 15 basis points to consumption in 2026, but this is minor compared to the negative impacts from trade and immigration policies [4] - The wealth effect on consumer spending is noted to be limited, with consumers increasing spending by less than 10 cents for every dollar increase in wealth [84][85] This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state of the US consumer market, highlighting potential risks and opportunities for investors.