美国半导体 - TACO 时代已过，关税时代来临- U.S. Semiconductors - The age of TACO is over, the time of the Tariff has come...

Summary of U.S. Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the U.S. semiconductor industry and the implications of potential tariffs on semiconductor imports, particularly in light of recent statements from former President Trump regarding tariffs of "approximately 100%" on chips and semiconductors [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Tariff Implications: - The proposed tariffs on raw semiconductor imports could amount to approximately $45 billion in 2024, with significant portions sourced from Taiwan and Malaysia [1][14]. - The actual implementation of these tariffs may be complex, with potential exemptions for companies committing to build manufacturing facilities in the U.S. [1][2]. 2. Commitment to Build: - Uncertainty exists around what constitutes a "commitment to build" in the U.S. and how much capacity is required to avoid tariffs [3][6]. - Companies like Intel, which are building in the U.S. but scaling back future aspirations, raise questions about their tariff status [3][4]. 3. Impact on Fabless Companies: - Fabless companies may face tariffs based on their reliance on TSMC's Taiwan fabs versus U.S. facilities [4][6]. - The potential for tariff-free access to TSMC's Taiwan fabs if they utilize TSMC's Arizona facility is under discussion [4]. 4. Winners and Losers: - Texas Instruments is likely to be viewed as a winner due to its commitment to building capacity in the U.S. [4][5]. - Companies with significant U.S. capacity, such as Intel, Analog Devices, NXP, and Broadcom, may benefit from the new tariff structure [4][26]. 5. Future Regulations: - The actual regulations resulting from the 232 investigation are awaited, which will clarify the tariff structure and its implications for the semiconductor industry [5][6]. Additional Important Content - Questions Raised: - Several questions remain unanswered regarding the specifics of tariff implementation, including whether end devices will be subject to tariffs and how non-U.S. semiconductor companies will be affected [6]. - The potential for retroactive charges for companies that fail to meet their build commitments raises further concerns about the practicalities of tariff enforcement [6]. - Market Performance and Ratings: - Current market ratings for key companies in the semiconductor sector include: - AMD: Market-Perform, Target Price $140 - Intel: Market-Perform, Target Price $21 - NVIDIA: Outperform, Target Price $185 - Texas Instruments: Market-Perform, Target Price $180 [7][9][10][11][12]. - Valuation Methodology: - The report emphasizes that valuations for companies may need to adjust based on the evolving landscape of tariffs and market expectations [8][9]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and discussions from the conference call regarding the U.S. semiconductor industry and the potential impact of tariffs on various stakeholders.