中国房地产 - 2024 年 9 月后首轮政策宽松周期-China Property _The first policy easing after Sept 2024 policy easing_ Lam

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Property - Context: The call discusses recent policy changes in the Chinese property market, particularly focusing on Beijing's easing of home purchase restrictions as of August 8, 2025, following a slowdown in property sales since Q2 2025 [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Policy Changes: - Beijing has relaxed home purchase restrictions for families with Beijing Hukou and those without but who have paid taxes or social security for two consecutive years. Families can buy unlimited properties outside the 5th ring road and are limited to two properties within it [2]. - This is the first easing in tier 1 cities since the major policy change in September 2024, indicating a cautious approach by the government to avoid a significant rise in property prices [3]. - Market Implications: - The easing is seen as a response to the recent slowdown in property sales, suggesting that the government is still concerned about potential market deterioration [3]. - The impact of this policy change is expected to be smaller than the previous easing in September 2024, which saw a one-month rebound in transaction volume [3]. - Stock Implications: - The policy is viewed positively for KE Holdings (BEKE), as Beijing accounts for 4.5% of its secondary Gross Transaction Value (GTV) and 11% of Lianjia secondary GTV in 2024. Shanghai represents 11% of its secondary GTV and 27% of Lianjia secondary GTV [3]. - China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) is expected to benefit significantly as it is the largest developer in Beijing, with the city accounting for 14% of its 2024 contract sales [3]. Additional Important Points - Risks and Opportunities: - Key downside risks include government policies that restrict demand and mortgage lending, tight financing for developers, and lower-than-expected residential growth in China's economy [6]. - Upside risks involve significant policy loosening that could boost residential property sales and prices, as well as large-scale asset disposals by developers to ease liquidity pressures [6]. - Valuation Methodology: - Valuations of China's property developers are based on Price-to-Earnings (PE) or Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) multiples [5]. - Analyst Team: - The report is prepared by a team of analysts from UBS, including John Lam, CFA, and Vera Gong, CFA, among others [4]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Chinese property market, focusing on policy changes, market implications, stock impacts, and associated risks and opportunities.