小米-2025 年第二季度预览 - 核心业务季节性利润率下降，评级中性Q225 preview_ seasonal margin decline expected for core business; reiterate Neutral

Summary of Xiaomi's Q225 Preview and Key Insights Company Overview - Company: Xiaomi - Industry: Smartphone and Internet-of-Things (IoT) home-lifestyle company - Mission: To build high-quality products at reasonable prices, capping hardware net margin at 5% per year [14][15] Key Financial Metrics - Q225 Smartphone Sell-Through: 41 million units, up 0.5% YoY and 1.5% QoQ [2] - Q225 Estimated Sell-In: 42.4 million units, in line with sell-through due to lean channel inventory [2] - Full Year Unit Growth Forecast: 175 million units, slightly revised down from 176 million [2] - Q225 Smartphone Gross Profit Margin (GPM): Expected to be flat QoQ at 11.6% [2] Regional Performance - China: Sell-through grew 8% YoY, driven by subsidies and the 618 shopping festival [2] - Europe and Rest of World (RoW): Recorded declines of -1% and -4% YoY, respectively, due to competition from Samsung and market share gains in emerging markets [2] AIoT Business Insights - Q225 AIoT Sales Forecast: RMB 36.6 billion, up 37% YoY; 2025E forecast at RMB 140.6 billion, up 35% YoY [3] - Margin Expectations: Seasonal decline expected due to 618 promotions, with a forecasted 3.7 percentage points QoQ decline from Q125's peak [3] - Challenges: Receding subsidy impacts and intensified domestic competition may suppress margin upside [3] Electric Vehicle (EV) Segment - Q225 EV Deliveries: 82,000 units, up 8% QoQ [4] - Average Selling Price (ASP): Expected to rise to RMB 240,000, with a margin increase of 0.7% [4] - Future Capacity: Second EV plant ramp-up is critical for 2H25/2026 shipment forecasts, with expectations of 398,000 and 720,000 units in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4] Valuation and Price Target - Revised Price Target: Lowered from HK$62.0 to HK$60.0, maintaining a Neutral rating [5] - Earnings Forecast Adjustments: Q225 and 2025 earnings forecasts reduced by 10.4% and 5.5%, respectively [5] - Valuation Methodology: Sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach, with smartphone, AIoT, and internet segments valued at 22.5x 2026E PE [5] Profitability and Financial Metrics - Revenue Projections: Expected revenues for 2025E at RMB 483.4 billion, growing to RMB 929.7 billion by 2029E [6] - Net Earnings: Projected net earnings for 2025E at RMB 42.0 billion, increasing to RMB 92.2 billion by 2029E [6] - Debt Management: Net cash position expected to improve significantly by 2029E [6] Risks and Opportunities - Downside Risks: Include raw material price hikes, competition in the premium smartphone market, and potential declines in IoT demand as subsidies fade [15] - Upside Risks: Faster-than-expected adoption of edge-AI smartphones, earlier monetization of IoT products, and higher EV shipments could drive growth [16] Market Position - Market Capitalization: Approximately HK$1,348 billion (US$172 billion) [7] - Free Float: 59% of shares [7] - Average Daily Volume: 151,813 shares [7] Conclusion Xiaomi is navigating a complex landscape with mixed performance across its segments. While the smartphone and AIoT businesses show growth potential, challenges from competition and market dynamics necessitate careful monitoring of margins and capacity expansions, particularly in the EV sector. The revised price target reflects a cautious outlook amid these developments.