亚洲科技硬件 - 对 AI 服务器及苹果供应链进行 15 年资产负债表与现金流分析的见解-Asia Tech Hardware_ Insights from a 15-year balance sheet & cash flow analysis in AI server & Apple supply chain

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the Asia Tech Hardware sector, particularly the AI server and Apple supply chain industries, over a 15-year horizon, examining business models, profitability, solvency, and operational efficiency [1] Core Insights Profitability Metrics - Return on Equity (ROE) for ODMs and equipment suppliers is projected to be between 20-30% in 2024, with Chroma and Delta expected to show significant increases [2] - Chroma's ROE has improved from 12% in 2010 to 25% in 2024, with expectations to reach 31% in 1H25 due to its focus on niche markets and divestment from low-margin segments [15] - Largan and Sunny Optical have shown fluctuating ROE due to market conditions, with signs of recovery noted since last year [15] Operational Efficiency - Chroma has the longest cash conversion cycle at 209 days due to its industry characteristics, yet maintains a strong free cash flow margin [77] - Luxshare has achieved an almost zero cash conversion cycle, indicating high operational efficiency [78] - Quanta's cash conversion cycle is longer due to logistical complexities in its supply chain [78] Debt and Solvency - Most companies maintain healthy debt levels, with Quanta's net debt-to-equity ratio expected to rise significantly from 15% in 2024 to over 60% in 2025-26 due to AI server business expansion [4][69] - Largan has a notably low net debt-to-equity ratio, reflecting its strong cash position [69] Capital Expenditure and Free Cash Flow - Unimicron is identified as the most capex-intensive company with a capex-to-revenue ratio averaging 21% over the past five years [5] - Chroma and Largan exhibit free cash flow margins between 20-40%, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [5] Investment Ratings and Price Targets - Delta Electronics: Rated Outperform, Price Target (PT) of NT$630 [8] - Chroma ATE: Rated Outperform, PT of NT$570 [9] - Quanta Computer: Rated Underperform, PT of NT$240 [10] - Unimicron Technology: Rated Outperform, PT of NT$170 [11] - Luxshare Precision: Rated Outperform, PT of RMB47 [12] - Sunny Optical: Rated Outperform, PT of HK$97 [13] - Largan Precision: Rated Market-Perform, PT of NT$2,400 [14] Additional Observations - The camera and PCB sectors show that CIS and lens suppliers achieve higher ROIC compared to module players, with higher technological barriers enhancing supplier concentration [3] - Quanta's financial performance is heavily reliant on the PC market, which has seen fluctuations impacting its ROE [15] - The PCB market is characterized by cyclical demand, with companies needing substantial capital investments to expand capacities [54] This comprehensive analysis highlights the competitive landscape and financial health of key players in the Asia Tech Hardware sector, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and risks.