Applovin - 2025 年第二季度每股收益回顾 - 跟随基于网络的看涨案例催化路径-AppLovin Corp_ 2Q25 EPS Recap - Follow the Web-Based Bull Case Catalyst Path

Summary of AppLovin Corp 2Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - Company: AppLovin Corp - Industry: Digital Advertising and Gaming Key Points Financial Performance - 2Q25 Advertising Revenue: $1,259 million, representing a 77% YoY increase, exceeding expectations of $1,231 million and $1,225 million [2][10] - EBITDA Estimate for FY26: Increased to $6.18 billion from $5.65 billion, driven by better-than-expected gaming trends and the rollout of a self-serve web-based ad platform [1][11] - Projected Revenue Growth: Expected to reach $7.576 billion in FY26, with a 41% YoY growth [13] Strategic Initiatives - Self-Serve Ad Platform: The rollout is set to begin in October 2025, starting with referrals from existing advertisers, aiming for a broader public launch in 1H26 [1][2] - International Expansion: The company plans to expand inventory access to international markets, which may reduce advertiser churn risk [1] Upside and Downside Scenarios - Upside Case: A target price of $660 reflects a 69% upside, with anticipated revenue growth of 74% in FY25 and 44% in FY26 [2][13] - Downside Case: A target price of $260 indicates a 33% downside, with potential challenges in web-based ad contributions and international expansion logistics [3][13] Valuation Metrics - Current Price: $390.57 as of August 6, 2025 [5] - Price Target: Maintained at $540, based on a 30x multiple on FY26 EBITDA [8][11] - Market Capitalization: Approximately $143 billion with 366 million shares outstanding [5] Profitability and Margins - EBITDA Margin: Expected to be 81.6% in FY26, indicating strong profitability [9][13] - Free Cash Flow: Projected to be $4.838 billion in FY26, with a free cash flow margin of 63.9% [9] Risks and Considerations - Execution Risks: Uncertainties regarding the pace of the referral model and visibility into web-based ad contributions could impact quarterly performance [3] - International Challenges: Expansion may require significant investment to localize services for international markets [3] Additional Insights - Gaming Revenue: Expected to grow to $5.876 billion by FY26, with a 28.5% YoY growth [9][13] - Debt Position: Net debt projected to decrease significantly, moving from $2.619 billion in FY23 to $303 million by FY26 [4] This summary encapsulates the key financial metrics, strategic initiatives, and potential risks associated with AppLovin Corp as discussed in the 2Q25 earnings call.