外汇与利率情绪调查 - 夏季疑虑-FX and Rates Sentiment Survey_ Summer doubts

Key Takeaways from the FX and Rates Sentiment Survey Industry Overview - The survey focuses on the foreign exchange (FX) and rates market sentiment, particularly regarding the US dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), and emerging markets (EM) currencies. It reflects the views of 42 fund managers with a total of USD 573 billion in assets under management (AUM) [7][9]. Core Insights 1. Short USD Thesis: The short USD remains the highest conviction trade for the rest of the year, despite being challenged by rising global growth concerns [1][3][20]. 2. Global Growth Concerns: There is a significant concern regarding a potential global growth slowdown, which could impact the short USD thesis [3][25]. 3. US Exceptionalism: The fading of US exceptionalism is a recurring theme, with expectations that both US equities and the USD may decline [1][32][33]. 4. Investor Sentiment: A strong majority of respondents expect the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair to be more dovish, impacting market expectations [44][46]. 5. FX Hedge Ratios: Many investors prefer to increase their FX hedge ratios, indicating a cautious approach towards US assets [49][50]. Additional Insights 1. Emerging Markets (EM) Sentiment: EM FX and duration sentiment appears to have peaked, with a slight decline in positioning and views noted in August [15][94]. 2. European Investment Push: There is muted conviction regarding a broad-based European investment push, with concerns about EU defense spending and fiscal policies [22][61]. 3. Tariff Expectations: Most respondents expect tariffs against China to remain between 30-40% by the end of 2025, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [17][34]. 4. Oil Price Expectations: Expectations for oil prices are that they will remain range-bound between $60-69 per barrel, with some upside risks anticipated [36][37]. 5. UK and Eurozone Sentiment: GBP sentiment has turned neutral with bearish levels, while EUR sentiment remains bullish despite lighter positioning [110][103]. Potential Risks and Opportunities 1. Fed Independence Risks: Nearly half of the respondents expect risks to Fed independence to manifest as a steeper US Treasury (UST) curve and a weaker USD [46][39]. 2. Global Risk Appetite: The appetite for risk-taking in portfolios remains lower than normal, with average cash levels reported at 3.3% [77][78]. 3. Duration Exposure: Global duration exposure has fallen relative to the previous month, indicating a cautious stance among investors [78][80]. Conclusion The survey indicates a complex landscape for FX and rates, with significant concerns about global growth, US fiscal policy, and the evolving dynamics of the Fed. Investors are adjusting their strategies accordingly, with a notable shift towards hedging and cautious positioning in the face of potential risks.