高端PCB需求跃迁，算力基座价值重构

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The global PCB market is expected to grow significantly, from $73.565 billion in 2024 to $100 billion by 2026, driven primarily by the AI server market, which is growing faster than the overall AI server growth rate [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - AI computing demand is driving the PCB industry through increased shipments of GPUs and ASICs, with ASICs requiring higher performance and power efficiency, leading to greater demand for high-end PCB products [1][5]. - GPU shipments are projected to reach 6.76 million units in 2026, a growth of approximately 20% to 30% compared to 5.76 million units in 2025 [1][9]. - Major cloud computing companies are optimistic about the acceleration of AI commercialization, increasing their capital expenditures (CAPEX). For instance, the total CAPEX of the four major North American cloud computing firms is expected to reach $366.1 billion in 2025, a nearly 50% year-over-year increase, and further increase to $426.2 billion in 2026 [1][18]. Specific Company Insights - NVIDIA's demand for PCBs is expected to grow rapidly from $850 million in 2024 to $1.53 billion in 2025, and then to $2.64 billion in 2026, reflecting the increasing demand for high-performance computing devices [3][16]. - Google and Amazon are rapidly advancing in ASIC chip development, with Google expected to ship 2 million ASIC chips in 2025 and 3.3 million in 2026, significantly increasing PCB usage from $1 billion to $2 billion [19]. - Meta is projected to increase its PCB procurement from $1.1 billion in 2025 to $2 billion in 2026, while Microsoft is also ramping up its investments in computing infrastructure [20]. Emerging Technologies and Trends - New technologies such as COWOP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) are being adopted, with a shift towards modular designs that enhance performance and cost-effectiveness [6][14]. - The introduction of high-frequency and high-speed materials, such as Ma9 and PTFE, is expected to significantly increase the value of PCBs and CCLs (Copper Clad Laminates) [7][33]. - The market for orthogonal backplanes is projected to reach $2 billion, driven by NVIDIA's new Rubin Ultra solution, which emphasizes the importance of PCB connections over traditional copper connections [30]. Supply Chain and Capacity Issues - Domestic PCB companies in China are experiencing a growth trend in CAPEX, with expectations of reaching 25 to 30 billion RMB in 2025, but face challenges such as long ramp-up cycles for high-end products and immature supply chains in Southeast Asia [27]. - Upstream CCL companies are also expanding capacity, but high-end materials remain in short supply, which could become a bottleneck for PCB manufacturers [28]. Market Demand and Economic Impact - The demand for AI-related PCBs is projected to grow from $5.6 billion in 2025 to $10 billion in 2026, significantly contributing to GDP growth [25]. - The optical module market is also expected to see substantial growth, with PCB demand rising from $1.6 billion in 2025 to nearly $3 billion in 2026 [26]. Conclusion - The PCB industry is poised for significant growth driven by advancements in AI computing, increased demand for high-performance computing devices, and the adoption of new technologies. However, supply chain challenges and capacity constraints may impact the pace of this growth.