工程机械—海外7月数据拆解与未来展望 -专家分享解读会议

Summary of the Conference Call on Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the engineering machinery industry, particularly in China and its overseas markets, discussing sales trends, demand forecasts, and market dynamics for 2025 [1][3][9]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Growth and Demand - In the first half of 2025, sales of excavators and loaders are expected to grow by 20%-30% year-on-year, driven by policy goals [1][3]. - However, from January to July 2025, excavator demand remained flat compared to the previous year, with an estimated total sales of approximately 85,000 units, lower than industry association statistics [1][3]. - A slowdown in sales is anticipated from August to October, with a potential slight increase in November and December [1][3]. Equipment Utilization Rates - Domestic equipment utilization rates are low, with small equipment at about 70%, large equipment between 60%-70%, and medium equipment at 45% [1][4]. - Overall, China's engineering machinery equipment utilization remains in the 50%-60% range, with many new devices still in inventory or exported [1][4]. Replacement Cycle Trends - The replacement cycle for engineering machinery is evolving, with mining equipment typically replaced every 2.5-3.5 years and road and municipal equipment every 6-8 years [1][5]. - The impact of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's scrapping policy is minimal due to high inventory levels and sufficient production capacity [1][5][6]. Export Performance - In July 2025, China's engineering machinery exports exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of over 30%, driven by strong demand in emerging markets [1][9]. - The overseas sales accounted for 54.7% of total sales from January to July 2025, with significant contributions from regions like South Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America [1][10]. Regional Market Dynamics - North America, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, South Asia, and South America showed strong year-on-year growth rates, with South Asia exceeding 70% [1][11]. - Conversely, markets in Australia, Russia, and Indonesia experienced declines, with Indonesia's demand affected by policy changes and project delays [1][12][11]. Challenges for Chinese Brands - Chinese brands face challenges in overseas markets, including inadequate service and inconsistent dealer quality, which complicates after-sales service and product quality control [1][19]. - The aftermarket for original parts is weak, with about 90% of customers opting for aftermarket parts instead of original ones, impacting profitability [1][15]. Future Outlook - Large domestic projects like the Yalong River Hydropower Station and the New Tibet Railway are expected to positively impact the engineering machinery industry, although project initiation may take time [1][17][18]. - The overall outlook for the overseas market remains optimistic, particularly in emerging regions, despite challenges in mature markets like Europe and North America [1][21]. Additional Important Insights - The second-hand market for machinery is active, with many customers upgrading to larger equipment rather than replacing due to age or failure [1][7]. - The engineering machinery market in Southeast Asia is competitive, with varying market shares for Chinese brands across different countries [1][13][14]. - The demand for engineering machinery in the Russian market has not shown significant recovery, and the market share of Chinese brands remains low [1][22].