Cogent Communications (CCOI) Conference Transcript

Cogent Communications (CCOI) Conference Summary Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the telecommunications industry, specifically focusing on the wavelength services market and data center monetization opportunities. Key Points and Arguments Wavelength Services - The ramp-up of the wavelength business has been slower than expected due to three main factors: 1. Integration of the former Sprint voice network with Cogent's metro network took about a year and a half, which was slightly ahead of schedule [3][56] 2. Building a demand funnel was challenging, with a total of 10,000 expressions of interest, but only 1,000 converted to orders, and 8,000 fell out over time [4][57] 3. A strong funnel of 4,700 orders was reported, including various stages of order fulfillment [5][58] - The market is highly concentrated, with two major players dominating and a few smaller regional players [4][57] - The company has pre-enabled 938 data centers for quick provisioning of wavelength services, which is a significant improvement over traditional market practices [8][62] - The wavelength market is valued at approximately $2 billion, and Cogent aims to capture market share through unique architectural advantages [10][64] Backlog and Revenue Recognition - The backlog consists of four categories: 1. Signed contracts that have been installed but not accepted (200-300 units) [11][66] 2. Signed orders still in provisioning (a few hundred) [13][69] 3. Signed orders not yet provisioned due to customer readiness [15][71] 4. Orders with agreed terms but not yet signed [19][72] - Revenue is only recognized when customers accept the service, leading to discrepancies between installed units and recognized revenue [12][67] Financial Performance and Projections - The company aims to achieve a quarterly revenue run rate of $20 million from wavelength services by the end of the year, up from $9.1 million [21][54] - Historical growth rates indicate that Cogent has grown revenues organically at 10.2% from 2005 to 2020, with a target of 6% to 8% growth moving forward [23][24] - The enterprise business, which represents about 13% of total revenues, is declining but is expected to stabilize [39][40] - The NetCentric business, including WAVES, is currently growing in the high single digits, while excluding WAVES and IPv4 leasing, growth is in the low single digits [46][48] Data Center Monetization - The company has interacted with over 160 counterparties regarding data center monetization, with six letters of intent received [30][31] - The facilities are primarily former central offices, and the company is looking for counterparties willing to invest risk capital [29][30] - There is a potential market for small COLO facilities and portfolio-wide deals, but challenges exist due to the lack of current revenue from these facilities [36][37] Additional Important Insights - The company has faced challenges in the past, particularly with the acquisition of the Sprint Global Markets business, which initially led to a decline in revenue and margins [24][25] - The management emphasizes the need for credibility and transparency in reporting metrics to investors, especially during the early stages of wavelength deployment [22][23] - The company has a history of overcoming financial headwinds and aims to improve EBITDA sequentially through cost-cutting initiatives and ramping high-margin sales [53][54]