美国关税影响追踪 - 关税实施后仍在等待峰值清晰度-Americas Transportation_ US Tariff Impact Tracker - Still Waiting On Peak Clarity Post Tariff Implementations

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the transportation industry, specifically the impact of US tariffs on freight flows from China to the USA [1][2][5]. Core Observations - Laden vessels from China to the USA decreased by 4% sequentially and 19% year-over-year (YoY), indicating a softening trend that may persist through mid-August based on data from the Port of Los Angeles [1][5]. - The tariff-related impacts are still unfolding, and the upcoming weeks are critical for understanding shipper reactions as the peak season approaches [1][6]. - Weekly data can be volatile, but analyzing it over multiple weeks can reveal trends related to tariffs [3][9]. Freight Flow Data - Container rates have dropped by 8% sequentially and are under significant pressure, down 67% YoY [5][29]. - Rail intermodal volumes on the West Coast increased by 1% YoY, marking the fifth consecutive week of positive growth, suggesting a recovery in logistics following previous disruptions [5][40]. - Planned TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) into the Port of Los Angeles are expected to drop by 3% in the near term, with a potential 20% increase two weeks later [5][33]. Future Projections - The 2025 trade scenario suggests that shippers may delay orders due to uncertainty, which could lead to an underwhelming peak season in terms of volume and revenue [6]. - If a re-stock event occurs in 2026, it could significantly benefit freight flows and margins, especially if consumer spending remains strong during the holiday season [6]. Stock Recommendations - Transport stocks may face downward pressure in the second half of 2025 if consumer demand does not increase [8]. - Freight forwarders like EXPD and CHRW are expected to benefit from volatility and potential surges in demand due to tariff pauses [8]. - Parcel companies such as UPS and FDX are also positioned to gain from increased demand for air freight during peak seasons [8]. Additional Insights - The Logistics Managers Index indicates that upstream inventories are expanding, while downstream inventories are contracting, reflecting a complex inventory landscape [69]. - The Supply Chain Congestion Tracker remains stable, suggesting fluidity in logistics comparable to pre-COVID levels [48][50]. - The Big Three ports (LA, Long Beach, Oakland) experienced a 5% YoY decline in volumes but a 21% sequential increase from May to June, indicating a recovery trend [52]. Conclusion - The transportation industry is navigating a challenging environment influenced by tariffs, consumer behavior, and inventory management. The upcoming months will be crucial for assessing the impact on freight flows and stock performance in the sector [1][6][8].