快递反内卷，涨价能持续、能扩散吗？

Summary of the Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, with a price increase and volume increase ratio reaching 40% in the first half of 2025, surpassing the 34% and 32% seen in 2020 and 2021 respectively [5][1] - The government is implementing measures to combat "involution" in the industry, including price correction drafts and compliance guidelines from regulatory bodies [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - Market Dynamics: The express delivery market is expected to grow by 16.3% in 2025, with future growth projected at 6%-9% over the next two to three years. Companies are expected to manage this growth without excessive price competition [1][15][16] - Company Performance: - SF Express: Maintains healthy growth with cost reductions due to volume increases, showing no signs of involution [7] - Yunda: Focused on stable development, with price increases slightly above industry levels [7] - YTO Express: Achieved increases in volume, revenue, and prices, indicating high-quality development [8] - Shentong: Experienced a smaller price drop than the industry average, with a volume increase above the average [8] - Postal Express: Underperformed compared to YTO and Shentong, with lower pricing [9] - Franchisee Issues: Franchisees are facing intense competition, with a significant portion of the revenue being retained by them, leading to price wars [10] Government Measures - The government has taken steps to address involution, including: - Emphasizing political and economic correctness in central meetings [6] - Implementing price correction drafts for the first time since 1998 [6] - Enforcing compliance guidelines for online trading platforms [6][17] Future Trends - Technological Advancements: The industry is expected to benefit from digitalization and automation, leading to cost reductions and improved efficiency [19][22] - New Revenue Streams: New business avenues such as cross-border delivery, factory delivery, and emergency logistics are anticipated to enhance industry revenue and profits [19][22] - Profit Projections: The total profit for five major companies in the industry is expected to reach 30 billion in 2025, potentially increasing to 50-60 billion by 2030 [21][22] Regional Insights - Jinhua: Experienced a price drop of 0.09 yuan in the first half of 2025, with a projected annual decrease of 0.13 to 0.14 yuan [11] - Linyi: Saw a price reduction of 0.15 yuan, with an expected total decrease of 0.22 to 0.23 yuan for the year [12] - Jieyang: Noted significant price competition, with a drop of 0.37 yuan in the first half of 2025 [13] - Baoding: Experienced a price drop of 0.76 yuan, with an annual forecast of around 1 yuan [14] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is navigating a complex landscape of price competition, regulatory scrutiny, and technological advancements. The focus on maintaining healthy competition and exploring new revenue streams is expected to drive growth and profitability in the coming years.