白酒周期如何演绎

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is experiencing a generalized cyclical pattern driven by diverse factors, no longer solely influenced by fixed asset investment. New growth engines include high-end manufacturing, services, consumption, and exports, with policy factors also playing a significant role [1][2] - The current cycle differs from the 2013-2015 cycle, with more rational inventory management among companies and distributors, resulting in shorter inventory cycles and reduced time lag between report bottoms and price bottoms. However, the current economic and policy environment is more severe, potentially leading to larger adjustments and longer cycles [1][4] Key Insights - Report bottoms do not necessarily indicate stock price bottoms. Price trends are crucial indicators of market supply and demand. A price bottom typically signals a stock price bottom, while relying solely on report data may not provide an accurate assessment [1][5] - In the short term, stable prices for Moutai are favorable for the stock market. However, in the medium to long term, the white liquor industry is expected to stabilize due to shifts in economic growth drivers and policy impacts, necessitating caution regarding potential volatility from economic and policy interactions [1][6] Market Dynamics - The total growth of the white liquor industry is limited, with increased competition among listed companies and a slowdown in market share expansion for leading firms. Price pressures are significant due to both asset and consumption attributes [1][8] - The current market conditions indicate that the white liquor industry is unlikely to see significant growth, as the primary consumer demographic has peaked. The market share of unlisted companies has decreased to around 40%, and further squeezing will yield diminishing returns [8][9] Future Trends - The fundamental performance of the white liquor industry is expected to bottom out between Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, coinciding with traditional peak sales seasons. Despite potential pressures on payments and prices, the likelihood of hitting a bottom is high [11][12] - The industry is projected to experience a gradual decline throughout 2025, with Q1 showing a 7% growth in sales revenue, but subsequent quarters may see a downturn due to policy impacts and delayed revenue recognition [13] Investment Considerations - Historical data suggests that even after the fundamentals bottom out, prices may continue to decline for an extended period. The stock price may remain flat during this time, but the risk to stock prices will decrease, presenting a favorable configuration opportunity for absolute return funds [14][17] - Companies with growth potential and resilience, such as Fenjiu, Zhenjiu, and Laojiao, are expected to perform well during market rebounds, similar to how Yanghe and Gujing performed in the previous cycle [15] Institutional Holdings and Valuation - Current institutional holdings in the white liquor sector have decreased from approximately 15% to 3.98%. While this is a significant drop, it is not expected to reach the lows of around 1% seen in the previous cycle [16] - Valuations are unlikely to drop to the extremely low levels seen in the last cycle, with expected profit valuation levels around 15 times. The average dividend yield has increased to 3.5%, providing a good opportunity for absolute return funds [17]