消费建材行业研究框架培训

Summary of the Consumer Building Materials Industry Research Industry Overview - The consumer building materials industry experienced a peak in 2021 followed by a correction, but is expected to grow over the next decade due to increasing demand for renovation of existing homes, with the renovation ratio rising to 50% [1][6] - Real estate policies directly impact the demand for consumer building materials by affecting sales, new starts, and completions. A decline of 10% in new home sales, completions, and new starts is anticipated by 2025, with new starts potentially declining even more significantly [1][5] Key Growth Drivers - Renovation of existing homes is becoming a crucial growth point for consumer building materials, with a significant amount of existing residential space available for renovation. The next 5-10 years are expected to be a golden period for residential renovations [1][6] - The demand for building materials is primarily divided into residential and public renovations, with residential demand accounting for 50%-60% of the total. The proportion of old home renovations has increased from 20%-30% to 50% and is expected to rise further [1][7] Market Dynamics - The renovation market is significantly influenced by categories such as exterior wall coatings, waterproofing, insulation materials, and pipeline construction, with an expected renovation ratio of 30% in the commercial market for these categories [1][10] - The consumer building materials sector differs from traditional materials like cement and glass, exhibiting cyclical growth characteristics. The market share of consumer building materials has been steadily increasing over the past decade, with a notable rise in the CR3 (top three companies' market share) compared to ten years ago [2][4] Competitive Landscape - Companies such as Sanke Tree, Henkel Group, Rabbit Baby, Weixing, and Beixin have shown strong competitiveness during the industry's downturn, with retail business share increases contributing to overall gross margin improvements [4][20] - Recommended leading companies based on high renovation share include Beixin in gypsum board, Sanke Tree in coatings, Arrow Home in sanitary ware, Rabbit Baby in boards, and Henkel Group in hardware [11] Future Trends - The public renovation market holds significant potential, particularly with urban renewal projects supported by special bonds. The area of old community renovations has reached 1 billion square meters and continues to grow [9] - The consumer building materials industry is expected to recover to previous high levels as the renovation ratio increases, driven by the existing stock of residential properties [8] Financial Outlook - The industry is currently facing challenges, with many companies experiencing historical low profitability. However, companies with high provisions, such as Yuhong, Keshun, and Sanke Tree, may show greater performance elasticity in the future [21] - Mid-term profit forecasts suggest that the coatings market could grow from 100 billion to 130-140 billion, with companies like Yuhong and Sanke Tree expected to see significant profit increases [22] Investment Considerations - The supply exit in the consumer building materials industry is closely related to the cycle, with a 25%-30% decline in demand compared to peak periods, leading to a market contraction of 30%-40% [19] - Despite the overall industry shrinkage, certain companies have demonstrated resilience and strong competitive advantages, highlighting the importance of scale economies and brand strength [20][23] Conclusion - The consumer building materials industry is poised for growth driven by renovation demand and structural changes in the market. Companies that adapt to these changes and leverage their competitive advantages are likely to succeed in the evolving landscape [17][24]