大摩闭门会：中国的 “反内卷” 能否奏效？

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese economy and its "anti-involution" policy targeting industries such as electric vehicles and solar energy. Core Points and Arguments - The "anti-involution" policy addresses excessive competition in advanced industries, which has emerged due to weak demand following the 2021 real estate market downturn and previous supply-driven incentive mechanisms [1][2]. - Current measures differ from past capacity reduction efforts by focusing on downstream price pressures in advanced industries, addressing private sector overcapacity, and considering the macroeconomic context of high debt and aging population [1][3]. - Strategies to improve profit margins include supply-side cleanup and gradual demand stimulation, with specific measures such as: - Trade credit plan of 138 billion RMB [3]. - National fertility subsidies totaling 100 billion RMB [4]. - Tuition fee reductions amounting to 30 billion RMB [5]. - Despite these stimulus measures, the actual GDP growth rate may fall below 4.5% in the second half of 2025, with a nominal GDP growth rate around 3.5% and a GDP deflator index expected to remain low at -0.8% to -0.9% [1][5]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Key indicators for assessing the success of reforms include: - Comprehensive inflation recovery as reflected in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI). - Stability in corporate profit margins and bank net interest margins. - An increase in the share of consumption in GDP and a decrease in household savings rates [1][6]. - Potential risk signals include: - Top-down capacity cuts without demand stimulation, which could harm downstream industries. - External factors like U.S. tariffs negatively impacting Chinese exports [2][6]. - Structural reforms needed for sustainable development include: - Adjusting local government incentive mechanisms to focus on improving living standards. - Reforming the tax system to encourage direct taxes and promote a consumption-oriented economy [2][6]. - The period starting from September 2024 is crucial for China's efforts to combat deflation, indicating a deeper understanding of the challenges at the microeconomic level [7].