低利率环境：哪些企业盈利更稳定？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of various industries, particularly focusing on industrial enterprises, public utilities, and manufacturing sectors in a low-interest-rate environment. The overall profit share of industrial enterprises is expected to remain above 15% in 2023-2024, with a slight decline to 12.5% in the first half of 2025, still higher than the pre-pandemic average of 5.9% [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Profit Recovery in Key Sectors: Industrial enterprises' profit share has significantly rebounded, with public utilities also seeing an increase to 12.1% as of mid-2023, up from a pre-pandemic average of 6.9% [2]. - Manufacturing Sector Decline: Manufacturing profit share has decreased to approximately 75%, with export-oriented industries like computers and electronics maintaining stable profits due to overseas demand recovery [1][2]. - Mining Sector Volatility: The mining sector's profits have been affected by fluctuations in the Producer Price Index (PPI), with a notable decline in 2023 due to commodity price adjustments and insufficient demand [1][4]. - Investment Returns: High capital return rates are observed in public utilities, coal, and petrochemical sectors, while the real estate sector shows lower returns, particularly since 2021 [5]. Additional Important Insights - Driving Factors for Profit Changes: Key drivers include price fluctuations, overseas demand, policy support for equipment updates, and consumer recovery in sectors like beverages and metals [4]. - Sector-Specific Performance: High-performing sub-sectors include energy metals, coal, oil and gas extraction, aerospace, and electronics, with strong growth potential in smaller segments despite overall weaker performance in some primary categories [6]. - Impact of PPI on Utilities: A decrease in mining PPI has alleviated cost pressures for public utilities, leading to a recovery in profit margins, although this trend may reverse due to insufficient end-demand [7]. - China's Export Dynamics: China's export share has improved due to pandemic-related shifts, with a temporary recovery in 2023-2024 driven by inventory replenishment in Western manufacturing [8]. - Outward Expansion of Chinese Enterprises: The trend of Chinese companies expanding overseas has positively impacted profitability, particularly in home appliances, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors [9][10]. - Policy Support for Emerging Industries: Recent industrial policies emphasize the importance of maintaining industrial security and promoting new industrialization, benefiting sectors like energy metals and biomanufacturing [11]. - Growth Potential in Service Consumption: There is significant potential for growth in service consumption, with government initiatives aimed at enhancing domestic demand and expanding service sectors such as health care and home services [12].