煤价新一轮上涨能否持续？有色“反内卷”机会如何把握？

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The coal industry has experienced a significant increase in spot prices since early June, rising approximately 15% from 610 RMB/ton to nearly 690 RMB/ton, while coal stock indices have only increased by 6% to 7% [1][4] - The rise in coal prices is primarily driven by changes in supply expectations, with demand being somewhat elastic but having a limited impact [1][5] - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies, including production control and restrictions on real estate and mining, has begun to take effect [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - Short-term market fluctuations are not expected to affect the coal price outlook for the second half of the year, with overall supply remaining relatively loose [1][8] - If coal supply decreases by 1% to 2%, prices could potentially rise by 50% to 80%, particularly in major coal-producing provinces [9][10] - The steel industry is showing profit recovery, which may lead to varying degrees of coal price increases in the second half of the year, benefiting industry performance [8][9] - The first wave of price increases was influenced by market expectations regarding the "anti-involution" policy, while the second wave was driven by production constraints in Shanxi and new regulations on mineral resources [2][3] Important but Overlooked Content - The coal industry is expected to see a year-on-year decline in mid-year performance due to price increases occurring mainly after July [3][13] - High-dividend stocks in the coal sector, such as Liu'an Huainan and Pingmei, are expected to have greater performance elasticity, but the investment environment is leaning towards growth industries, limiting valuation expansion for coal stocks [3][14] - The overall coal demand is not expected to change significantly in the second half of the year, with GDP growth projected between 4.8% and 5.5% [11][12] - The impact of external factors on supply disturbances, such as energy consumption controls and the pandemic, is crucial for coal price movements [12]