中国金融_7 月 M1 增长在贷款增长更理性的情况下持续反弹，两者形成良好组合-China Financials -Continued rebound in M1 growth in July amid more rational loan growth is a good combo

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Financials - Date: August 13, 2025 - Analysts: Richard Xu, CFA; Chiyao Huang; Beryl Yang; Chenqian Liu Core Insights 1. Loan Growth Trends: RMB loan growth moderated to 6.8% year-on-year (yoy) in July, with a decline of Rmb50 billion in the month. This was supported by an increase in bills amounting to Rmb871 billion. Year-to-date (YTD) new corporate loans added Rmb10.66 trillion, down 1% yoy. The slowdown is attributed to rationalization in industrial capital expenditure and local government financing vehicle (LGFV) swaps [2][9][10] 2. Household Loans: Household loans remained weak, particularly consumption loans, with YTD short-term household loans declining by Rmb383 billion compared to an increase of Rmb61 billion last year. This decline is partly due to banks adopting a more conservative risk appetite following higher retail loan non-performing loans (NPLs) in the previous year [2][9] 3. Deposit Growth: Household deposit growth decreased to 10.3% yoy in July, with a monthly decline of Rmb500 billion. This decline is attributed to seasonal deposit flows to wealth management products (WMPs) and early signs of capital flow to equity markets. In contrast, corporate deposit growth accelerated to 4.1% yoy, likely due to increased bond issuance and improved corporate cash flow [3][9] 4. M1 and Corporate Deposits: M1 growth rebounded to 5.6% yoy, indicating a positive trend alongside the acceleration in corporate deposit growth. This combination is expected to help reduce corporate credit risks [4][9] 5. Total Social Financing (TSF): Headline TSF increased by 9.0% yoy in July, up from 8.9% in June, supported by government bond issuance despite slower loan growth. Government bonds added Rmb1.2 trillion in July, with corporate bond growth recovering from a low base in 2024 [9][10] Additional Insights - Market Dynamics: The report indicates a shift towards more rational loan growth and a rebound in M1 and corporate deposit growth, which are seen as positive indicators for the financial stability of the sector [4][9] - Investment Outlook: The overall view of the China Financials sector is deemed attractive, suggesting potential investment opportunities amidst the current market conditions [5][63] Important Data Points - RMB Loan Growth: 6.8% yoy [2] - Household Loan Decline: Rmb383 billion YTD [2] - Corporate Deposit Growth: 4.1% yoy [3] - M1 Growth: 5.6% yoy [4] - TSF Growth: 9.0% yoy [9] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current trends and outlook for the China Financials sector.