亚洲科技_高带宽内存（HBM）—— 坏消息即是好消息-Asia Technology-HBM

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) sectors within the Asia Pacific technology market - Key Companies Mentioned: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Winbond, CXMT, and others Core Insights 1. HBM Pricing Dynamics: The HBM pricing situation is rapidly changing with competition and market share shifts expected in 2026, but current conditions appear de-risked. Positive cloud capital expenditure (capex) data and tariff relief suggest a return to sustainable HBM returns [1][3] 2. Structural Rerating Concerns: The case for a structural rerating in HBM is not well supported, with few changes in market dynamics compared to DRAM. Long-term margin progression is expected to converge, indicating that much of the potential upside may already be priced in [3][10] 3. DRAM Cycle Outlook: The growth outlook for DRAM is slipping, with a recovery in the second half of 2025 viewed as overly optimistic. Real demand momentum has slowed, and there is pushback from customers against price hikes of 5-10% for DDR5 contracts [4][21] 4. NAND Pricing Trends: Recent contract pricing for NAND settled at a 3-4% quarter-over-quarter increase, lower than previous expectations. The blended average selling price (ASP) for 4Q25 is expected to decline by 0-5% [5][23] 5. Earnings Upside Potential: There is a preference for companies like Samsung and Winbond due to potential earnings upside, particularly as Samsung may experience renewed growth surprises in 4Q25 [6][10] Additional Important Points 1. Market Sentiment and Economic Factors: The macroeconomic environment, including potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved economic growth expectations, could lead to a rotation back into traditional commodity memory stocks, which have lagged behind AI-driven memory stocks [11][15] 2. HBM Production Capacity Estimates: HBM production capacity estimates for major players like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron show significant growth potential, with total HBM production expected to reach 34,634 million Gb by 2026 [18] 3. Customer Commitments and Pricing Dynamics: There are indications of reduced customer commitments and changing pricing dynamics for HBM, with expectations of significant share shifts in the market by 2026 [10][20] 4. NAND Market Developments: The demand for eSSD is expected to remain robust, driven by AI infrastructure scaling, while consumer demand for PCs and smartphones is weak. This divergence in demand could impact pricing strategies moving forward [23][24] 5. Capacity Expansion Plans: Companies like CXMT are expanding their capacity, but progress is slowing due to qualification processes. Their supply bit growth rate is projected to be around 93% year-over-year in 2025 [22] Conclusion The HBM and DRAM markets are facing significant changes with evolving pricing dynamics, competitive pressures, and macroeconomic influences. Companies like Samsung and Winbond are positioned for potential growth, while the overall sentiment remains cautious due to slowing demand in certain segments.