中国经济_在还款背景下信贷增长将放缓-China Economics-Credit Growth to Moderate amid Payback

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: China Economics, specifically focusing on credit growth and fiscal policies in the Asia Pacific region [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Credit Growth Trends: Broad credit year-on-year (YoY) increased by 10 basis points to 9.2%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 9.3% [10] - Government Bond Issuance: In July, government bond issuance was strong at Rmb1.2 trillion compared to Rmb0.7 trillion in July 2024, contributing significantly to the credit uptick [2] - Household Loans Decline: New household loans turned negative for the first time in 20 years, decreasing by Rmb50 billion, attributed to slower consumption trade-in programs and a weakening property market [10] - Future Credit Growth Outlook: Credit growth is expected to moderate from August due to a fading fiscal impulse, which is projected to create a ~0.5 percentage point drag on credit growth for the remainder of the year [3][10] - Policy Support Measures: Incremental policy support is anticipated, including a 1% interest subsidy for consumer loans and a supplementary budget of Rmb0.5-1 trillion expected in September/October [4][10] Additional Important Insights - Impact of Fiscal Policies: The fiscal-led credit impulse is expected to moderate from August, influenced by the payback of government bond front-loading [7] - Sectoral Credit Allocation: While there may be reduced credit support to overcapacity sectors due to anti-involution policies, increased credit allocation is expected for sectors with less oversupply and infrastructure projects [4] - M2 Growth: A stronger-than-expected M2 growth of 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% YoY indicates accelerated deployment of government bond proceeds for infrastructure [10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future expectations of credit growth in China, along with the implications of government policies on various sectors.