半导体晶圆的缓慢复苏仍在持续-Semi wafers' slow recovery continues

Summary of GlobalWafers Conference Call Company Overview - Company: GlobalWafers (6488 TT) - Industry: Semiconductor Wafers Key Financial Results (2Q25) - Revenue: NT$16,008 million, up 2.7% QoQ and 4.5% YoY [5] - Gross Profit: NT$4,123 million, down 16.7% YoY [5] - Gross Margin (GM%): 25.8%, down from 32.3% YoY [5] - Operating Profit: NT$2,438 million, down 27.6% YoY [5] - Net Income: NT$1,682 million, down 41.6% YoY [5] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): NT$3.52, down 41.5% YoY [5] Core Insights - Market Outlook: GWC anticipates some half-on-half (HoH) sales growth in 2H25 and year-on-year (YoY) growth in 2026 in US dollar terms [3][10] - Capital Expenditure (Capex): Expected to remain similar to 2024 levels but significantly reduced in 2026 [3] - Long-term Growth: Despite a weaker semiconductor market, GWC expects a return to positive sales growth in 2025 and acceleration in 2026 [4] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM): Expected to remain weaker than previous up-cycles due to higher depreciation, utility costs, and foreign exchange headwinds [4][10] Investment Ratings and Target Price - Current Rating: Outperform [4] - Target Price: NT$453.00, based on a 12x multiple of 2026E EPS [4][8] Additional Considerations - Customer Inventory: Reported to be down, with strong demand for leading-edge nodes [10] - Cost Management: The company is attempting to pass on cost increases to customers [10] - US Market Entry: GWC received its first grant/subsidy in the US in 2Q25, which may benefit from TSMC's aggressive long-term capex plans in the US [10] - Prepayments: Continue to decline sequentially due to an oversupply situation [10] Financial Projections - Revenue Growth: Expected to recover with a projected growth of 9.5% in 2025 and 19.4% in 2026 [9] - Net Debt to Equity Ratio: Expected to rise to 49.4% in 2025 [9] - Return on Equity (ROE): Projected to improve to 15.9% by 2026 [9] Conclusion GlobalWafers is navigating a challenging semiconductor market but is positioned for potential growth in the coming years, supported by strategic cost management and market demand dynamics. The company's long-term outlook remains positive despite short-term challenges.