白酒：周期复盘，节奏推演

Summary of the Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The wine industry is currently experiencing a recovery phase, with signs of improvement in sales volume observed in June and July, despite high-end and business-related banquets still facing pressure [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - Sales Volume Improvement: There has been a noticeable improvement in sales volume since late July, particularly in casual dining scenarios such as family gatherings and graduation celebrations. However, high-end and business-related banquets remain suppressed and require more time for recovery [2]. - Price Adjustments: The price of the original box of Moutai has decreased from approximately 1,900 yuan to around 1,800 yuan due to increased supply ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival, indicating short-term price pressure [1][2]. - Market Bottom Prediction: The wine index is expected to reach its bottom in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, with the adjustment cycle likely lasting 3-4 quarters, similar to the previous economic and policy pressure period from 2013 to 2015 [1][3]. - Demand Recovery Timeline: The earliest potential recovery in demand could occur around the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2026, driven by a low base effect and easing economic policies. However, inventory clearance may take longer [1][3]. - Dividend Yield as a Safety Net: High-end wine stocks generally have a dividend yield above 4%, providing a solid bottom for the wine sector and indicating limited downside risk [1][3]. - Mid-term Demand Drivers: Over the next 2-3 years, a significant recovery in wine demand is anticipated due to short-term economic recovery and marginal improvements in policy constraints. The construction area is expected to rebound, which will enhance consumption scenarios [1][4]. - Investment Strategy: In the short term, high-end wines are considered the best investment choice due to their strong financial resilience, minimal impact on primary consumer groups, and significant brand and channel premium. Once a recovery is confirmed, attention can shift to mid-range or regionally strong brands [1][5]. Additional Important Insights - Inventory Levels: Current social inventory levels remain high, and the market has not yet entered a formal clearance phase, which may delay recovery [3]. - Long-term Growth Potential: The wine sector is viewed as a cyclical asset that could outperform inflation if the economy shifts towards a consumption-driven growth model, suggesting that high-end wine business models may continue to thrive [4].