大摩闭门会-The Nuclear Renaissance; Investor FAQs on Anti-Involution

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - Significant increase in global nuclear power investment, expected to exceed 2.2 trillion yuan, a substantial rise from last year's forecast of 1.5 trillion yuan [1][2] - Nuclear power equipment and plant segments show outstanding performance, with total returns exceeding 60%, while related stocks have a total return rate over 40%, significantly outperforming the MSCI Global Index [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments - China's policy shift to combat deflation since September 2024 includes direct measures to curb vicious competition and stimulate demand, aiming for a balanced economy towards consumption [1][4] - The trend of capital migration is evident, with institutions like insurance companies moving from fixed income to equity investments, and households replacing time deposits with equity-exposed financial products, contributing to market rebounds despite weak economic fundamentals [1][5] - Policymakers are addressing excessive market participants and price wars through supply-side reforms combined with demand stimulation, with national support measures for childbirth and education already introduced [1][7] - The Hang Seng Index has significantly outperformed the CSI 300 this year, suggesting a recommendation to overweight offshore Chinese stocks due to higher concentration in quality industries and stronger profitability growth [1][8] Additional Important Content - The global nuclear power capacity is expected to grow significantly, with China projected to add 370 GW by 2050, making it a key player in the nuclear energy sector [2][3] - The report highlights 65 investment opportunities related to the global nuclear theme, including power generation, uranium mining, and equipment manufacturing [2] - The current market conditions indicate a divergence between onshore and offshore markets, with the Hang Seng Index achieving a 28% return compared to approximately 10% for the CSI 300 [8] - Active funds are facing outflows, with liquidity indices remaining in negative territory, but the offshore Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from favorable dollar trends [12] - Antitrust actions are expected to take longer to show improvements in ROE and earnings growth compared to previous supply-side reforms, as they are more market-oriented rather than administrative [11]