当前光模块板块观点更新
2025-08-18 01:00

Summary of Conference Call on Optical Module Industry Industry Overview - The optical module industry is experiencing optimistic growth trends, driven by increased capital expenditures from cloud vendors and intensified overseas procurement from domestic suppliers [1][4] - The demand for 800G optical modules is expected to exceed market expectations by 15%-20% in 2026, with a stable forecast of 8 million units for 1.6T products [1][4] Key Insights - The demand for optical modules is projected to grow two to three times by 2026, but supply constraints due to difficulties in expanding core chips (EML and DSP) may lead to a supply-demand imbalance [1][5] - If production capacity is capped at 40 million units for 800G products without increasing shipment volumes, price declines for optical module companies will be less than the normal range of 15%-20%, potentially even below 10% [1][5] - Major companies like Meta are actively purchasing, which may lead to price increases in the optical module market [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on second-tier companies that are confirmed to enter the North American market and face limited competition in the short term, as they are likely to experience rapid valuation recovery and explosive growth in the next two to three years [2] - The optical module sector is expected to strengthen in the coming months, with significant events like the September Optical Expo and October order placements likely to boost market sentiment [6][7] Profitability and Valuation - There are concerns about maintaining a net profit margin above 30%, but the current market conditions, surging demand, and potential price increases suggest that profitability may improve further [3][8] - The optical module industry is currently undervalued, with a typical valuation of 20 times earnings being considered low in a bullish market, especially given the anticipated high growth rates over the next three years [3][11] - The market has not fully reflected the trend of computational power expansion, leading to undervaluation of domestic core module companies [11][12] Market Dynamics - The rapid pace of technological upgrades in the optical module industry allows companies to maintain high profit margins, as the time between iterations has decreased significantly [10] - The disparity in market valuations between Chinese and American computational power companies highlights the need for increased attention on undervalued domestic assets [12] Conclusion - The optical module industry is poised for significant growth, driven by increased demand and capital expenditures from cloud service providers, while supply constraints may lead to favorable pricing dynamics. Investors are encouraged to focus on second-tier companies with strong market positions and growth potential.

当前光模块板块观点更新 - Reportify