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全球宏观展望之后:中国的 “内卷” 与 “演化”-What's Next in Global Macro China's Involution Convolution
2025-08-18 01:00

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the Chinese economy and its current macroeconomic challenges, particularly regarding deflation and the anti-involution campaign initiated by the Chinese government [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - Chinese Inflation Trends: While the US has experienced inflation above target, China has seen inflation below target, with the GDP deflator negative for nine consecutive quarters, indicating a risk of deflation [1]. - Policy Shift: The anti-involution campaign represents a significant policy pivot aimed at addressing deflation and overcapacity in the economy, moving away from traditional stimulus measures [1][2]. - Industrial Landscape Changes: The current industrial environment is characterized by a dominance of private enterprises in emerging sectors like solar, electric vehicles (EVs), and batteries, contrasting with the state-owned enterprises (SOEs) of the past [2]. - Need for Market-Oriented Strategies: The complexity of the current macro environment necessitates a more market-oriented approach to policy, rather than top-down mandates, to effectively consolidate supply in various sectors [2][3]. - Production Cuts in SOE-Dominated Sectors: Sectors with high SOE concentration, such as coal, steel, and cement, are already experiencing production cuts, following a historical precedent [3]. - External Pressures: Rising US tariffs and geopolitical fragmentation may accelerate the consolidation of domestic industries, pushing China towards higher value-added production [4]. - Long-Term Reform Outlook: Structural reforms are essential to address deflation, including recalibrating local incentives, revamping the tax system, and shifting the economic balance towards consumption [8]. Additional Important Content - Gradual Implementation of Reforms: The anticipated reforms are expected to be modest and flexible initially, with broader frameworks for the private sector to be established later in the year [3]. - Consumption Subsidies: Small steps such as consumption subsidies and targeted welfare support are part of the ongoing discussions to stimulate the economy [5][7]. - Upcoming Five-Year Plan: The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide more clarity on reform priorities, balancing industrial policies with the need for structural reforms [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy's current state and the implications of the anti-involution campaign, highlighting the need for strategic reforms and market-oriented policies to combat deflation and stimulate growth.