调整再出发：上一轮白酒低谷期复盘

Summary of the White Liquor Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white liquor industry is undergoing a slow adjustment that began in 2021, currently showing a U-shaped bottom pattern, but it has not yet confirmed a bottom [1][5][9] - The implementation of a liquor ban in Q2 2025 has accelerated the adjustment in the white liquor industry, impacting demand, sales, and wholesale prices [1][3][22] - The adjustment period is expected to be a critical window for observing whether the industry can completely clear out [1][9] Key Points and Arguments - Compared to the previous cycle (2012-2016), the current adjustment is characterized by a U-shaped bottom rather than a V-shaped bottom, indicating a longer and more complex recovery process [1][9][10] - High-end liquor and strong regional liquor brands have shown greater resilience during the adjustment, demonstrating leading advantages in fundamentals, stock prices, and market positioning [1][6][18] - The current cycle has not yet fully bottomed out, with the Shenyuan White Liquor Index and wholesale prices still showing potential for further decline [1][7][10] - The second and third quarters of 2025 may see limited declines in financial reports, but the difficulty in narrowing future declines is significant [1][9][10] Historical Context - The previous adjustment cycle from 2012 to 2016 was relatively quick, lasting about two to three years, with significant declines in wholesale prices, stock prices, and financial reports [2][13] - The current cycle has seen a similar mid-to-high double-digit decline in stock prices and valuations, with a faster pace of fund liquidation in 2025 compared to the previous cycle [3][11][21] Performance Indicators - The performance of high-end liquor brands has been stable, quickly adapting to new high-end consumption scenarios, while mid-range liquor has suffered the most due to policy impacts [15][16] - The overall performance of white liquor stocks has shown a significant decline, with high-end brands like Moutai maintaining positive growth through strategic distribution [16][17] Future Outlook - High-end and strong regional liquor brands are expected to continue showing faster recovery and greater elasticity in the market [18] - The industry is anticipated to enter a new upward repair cycle following the current adjustment, contingent on the successful clearing of the market [22][23] Additional Insights - The current adjustment has been influenced by external factors and policies, particularly the liquor ban, which has expedited the industry's clearing process [22] - The ideal signal for determining the industry bottom would be simultaneous bottoming of financial reports and wholesale prices, which is currently being monitored [23]